#美军封锁霍尔木兹海峡 Amid the backdrop of a U.S. military blockade of Iran: analysis of crude oil, gold, and BTC price trends, and sharing trading strategies

I. Impact of the event

1. Crude oil: Directly positive. Supply panic drives oil prices higher; a strong uptrend in the short term. If the conflict escalates, it accelerates the spike; if things ease, it pulls back.
2. Gold: Supported by safe-haven demand + an inflation hedge. Short-term range-bound fluctuations; bullish in the medium to long term. A tense situation will break through and move higher.
3. Bitcoin: Inflation expectation suppression + safe-haven diversion. Wide-range consolidation; if the situation deteriorates, it is prone to falling, while easing leads to a rebound.

II. Long and short strategies

Crude oil

- Long: Buy in batches on pullbacks; stop loss $3; targets $110/$120
- Short: If it breaks above $115 and the situation eases, try shorting; stop loss $4; target $100

Gold

- Long: Add longs in batches at low levels; stop loss 4500; targets 4850/5000 USD
- Short: Short briefly above 4850; stop loss $50; target $4600

Bitcoin

- Long: Enter at 62,000–64,000; stop loss 60,000; targets 68,000–70,000
- Short: Enter at 69,000–71,000; stop loss 73,000; target 63,000

III. Risk control

Total position ≤30%. Use light positioning. Set stop losses strictly. Exit promptly when there is a sudden geopolitical shift

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