Assets Direction Entry Reference Take Profit Target Stop Loss Reference

BTC Short 71,800 - 72,000 70,500 → 70,000 72,500

BTC Long 70,300 - 70,500 71,500 → 72,000 69,900

ETH Short 2,230 - 2,250 2,170 → 2,140 2,280

ETH Long 2,160 - 2,180 2,220 → 2,250 2,140

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📌 1. Geopolitics: High risk, bears have the advantage

The situation is escalating rather than easing.

· Negotiation Breakdown: The US-Iran talks ended on April 12 without any agreement, with fundamental disagreements remaining.

· Confrontation Escalation: The next day, U.S. President Trump threatened to "blockade" the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's Navy Commander declared the strait is under Iranian control.

· Military Strike: The U.S. is considering a "limited military strike" plan, making the risk of full-scale conflict real.

Overall, the geopolitical tone is bearish, and market risk aversion has clearly increased.

🐳 2. On-chain Data: Bearish signals strengthen, bullish logic unverified

· Whale Movements: The previous analysis mentioned an ETH whale using 20x leverage to go long with unrealized profits; this round, it quietly took profits and exited, turning to short. The so-called "smart money" whales have not sold significantly during recent turbulence, but buying momentum has weakened. Main capital behavior is bearish.

· Long/Short Ratio and Funding Rates: Mainstream contract funding rates are generally negative (e.g., BTC at -0.0028%), indicating lower cost to short than to long, with more funds favoring shorts. Liquidations of short positions are slightly higher than longs, but BTC price continues to decline, indicating bears dominate the market.

· Macro Environment: Countries like Vietnam extended fuel tax exemptions, directly proving that high international oil prices threaten economic stability in multiple countries, with inflation risks suppressing risk assets.

📊 3. Technical Analysis: Support and resistance, downside space opened

· BTC Daily Chart: Price was rejected at the resistance zone of $73,750-$74,000, forming a classic failed breakout pattern with heavy selling pressure above. The current price has broken below the previously emphasized key support at $73,000, now near $71,200. According to user-provided screenshots (e.g., BTC daily chart), MACD has formed a death cross at high levels, with red momentum bars appearing, signaling clear bearishness.

· ETH Daily Chart: Price sharply retreated from the $2,300 resistance, falling back to around $2,200, stuck in a narrow range of $2,000-$2,300. MACD also formed a death cross and diverges downward; KDJ indicator has entered oversold territory, indicating limited rebound potential.

💎 4. Core Conclusions and Trading Recommendations

The current market is in a state of "technical weakness + high geopolitical risk," dominated by negative factors.

· Core Strategy: Focus on shorting at high levels, with small long positions as supplements.

· Operation Priority: Looking for short opportunities near key resistance levels remains the more prudent strategy.

· Long Position Logic: Going long is a "counter-trend trade" and requires extreme caution. Only if the price quickly and panicily breaks below key psychological levels (e.g., $70,000), releasing short-term selling momentum, can small positions be considered for technical rebounds. Otherwise, avoid entering.

· Risk Warning: The market is currently driven by news, reducing the effectiveness of technical analysis. Any sudden news about US-Iran conflict (ceasefire, agreement, etc.) could instantly reverse the market. Set strict stop-loss orders to prevent sharp reversals.

This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously based on your own risk tolerance. $BTC