#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

The narrative effect of the US-Iran war diminishes - oil prices stabilize at low levels

On April 14, international crude oil prices showed a trend of rising and falling before retreating. As of the close of trading, WTI crude oil futures were at $95.2 per barrel, down slightly by 0.3% from the previous trading day; Brent crude oil futures were at $99.8 per barrel, down 0.2%. During the early trading session, influenced by news of the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and the impact of the US blocking the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices once surged to $101.2 per barrel. Market concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions sharply increased. However, after midday, news revealed that negotiations had not been completely closed, and mediators would continue to mediate in the coming days. This news quickly eased market panic, and oil prices retreated and remained within a narrow range of fluctuations.

This “flip-flopping” operation of the US and Iran—sometimes negotiating, sometimes blocking the strait, even opening fire—has kept the market spinning wildly. When everyone realizes that the US and Iran are jointly harvesting the “leeks,” the impact of war narratives on the market diminishes. This may also be why, after the US announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, oil prices did not jump significantly.

From a technical analysis perspective, current international oil prices are in a state of mixed bullish and bearish signals. On the daily chart, the RSI indicator has fallen from high levels to around 52. Although it has not entered the oversold zone, it already shows signs of weakening bullish momentum. Resistance is strong in the $100–$105 per barrel range, with multiple attempts to break through failing to do so effectively; support is found around $95 per barrel, forming a short-term oscillation range.

The 4-hour chart shows that the short-term moving averages are arranged in a bearish configuration, with oil prices in a downward channel, indicating a short-term weak trend. However, the MACD indicator shows signs of bullish divergence, suggesting that downward momentum is waning.

In this situation, oil prices are likely to fluctuate around $95–$100 in the short term. If negotiations make substantial breakthroughs and both sides reach a ceasefire agreement, prices could fall back to the $90–$92 range. Conversely, if negotiations completely break down and conflicts escalate, oil prices may once again challenge the $100 mark. Given the higher probability of the latter, a short-term long and long-term short strategy is recommended: buy near $95 in the short term, and sell near $105 in the long term.