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The U.S. military has abandoned the planned high-casualty frontal assault on the shoreline, and also abandoned the aggressive incursion tactics aimed at pushing deeper inside the Persian Gulf, choosing instead to carry out a comprehensive blockade around Iran.
This is the “bloodless war” with the lowest cost and highest efficiency—an upgraded version of a “low-cost, maximum strangulation” against Venezuela.
The direct military strikes against Iran come at an extremely high price: in the previous four weeks of operations, U.S. forces consumed about $890 million per day on average; they dropped 15,000 precision-guided bombs; they emptied all 850 Tomahawk missiles, and the AGM-158 stealth missiles ran out of stock by 45%, damaging large quantities of military equipment—while both consumption levels and personnel risks remain high. And the peripheral blockade requires no direct engagement: simply by relying on maritime interception and port control, it can cut off Iran’s economic lifeblood. It also avoids the rebuilding difficulties caused by flattening Iran’s infrastructure.
Khirck Island accounts for 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports—1.5 million barrels per day; after the blockade, about 1.5% of global oil supply was immediately cut off. Bandar Abbas Port handles 90% of Iran’s container trade, with annual throughput of 25 million tons; once locked down, Iran’s foreign trade essentially grinds to a halt. The daily charter rates of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) surged from $200k to $400k, shipping costs skyrocketed by 8 times, and Iran’s foreign-exchange income was directly halved.
Over five years, U.S. sanctions against the Venezuela-backed government resulted in a $232 billion loss of its oil revenue and a $642 billion GDP contraction—this set of tactics has been proven effective. By using extremely low military costs to achieve strategic strangulation against Iran, Iran must therefore stay alert to this more covert and longer-lasting mode of pressure.