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High-level fluctuation, waiting quietly for the development of US-Iran situation—Deep analysis of gold price movement today

The international spot gold (XAU/USD) quote is approximately $4,786.69 per ounce, up about $35.89 ( +0.75%) from the previous trading day's close. The overall trend is relatively stable but the direction remains unclear. The current price is a key technical battleground zone, with the strong resistance at $4,800 ahead—whether to break upward or retreat remains to be seen.

👉 Technical indicator analysis

1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Based on recent technical data (referencing the 1-hour chart on April 13), RSI(14) is at 55.42, positioned in the neutral to slightly bullish zone.

2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
The daily MACD indicator continues to stay above the midline, which is an important signal that the medium-term upward trend still exists. However, the 1-hour MACD shows **-0.12**, indicating short-term momentum has turned negative—since the March highs, the correction phase has seen the fast line cross below the slow line.

There is divergence between the two timeframes:

Daily: MACD remains above the midline, indicating a medium-term bullish trend, no death cross

1-hour: MACD is negative, showing short-term weakness, with bulls and bears still in stalemate

3. Moving average system

20-day moving average: Estimated around $4,700–$4,750, currently above the price, indicating a short-term bullish pattern still holds

50-day moving average: Around $4,600, serving as an important medium-term support during this correction

200-day moving average: Around $4,200, representing the bottom line of the long-term bull market, still some distance from the current price

👉 Market sentiment: A split 50/50

According to this week’s market survey data:

Wall Street analysts: 50% bullish / 50% bearish—an uncommon balanced stance

Retail investors: 63% optimistic

This split itself is informative. Institutions are waiting for clearer signals (PPI, breakthroughs or ruptures in US-Iran diplomacy), while retail investors tend to add positions on dips based on their long-term bullish belief in gold. When such divergence is so pronounced, it often indicates the market is at a critical point of direction choice.

👉 Fundamental analysis

1. US-Iran situation—Uncontrolled "abnormal" geopolitical risk premium

Over the weekend, the Islamabad talks broke down again, and the US military announced a comprehensive maritime blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude oil prices returned above $100 per barrel, and inflation expectations immediately rose.

However, there is a key "counterlogic" worth paying special attention to: Geopolitical crises usually benefit gold, but in this cycle, they have suppressed gold prices during certain periods. The reason lies in the chain of oil prices—inflation—rate hike expectations, which is being double-pressed by a strong dollar and rising bond yields—this is the most counterintuitive and critical logical structure in gold trading through 2026.

2. CPI and PPI data—Inflation as a double-edged sword

The US March CPI annual rate rose to 3.3% (highest since May 2024), with a monthly increase of 0.9% (largest single-month increase since mid-2022). Expectations for rate cuts have been significantly compressed, with the December meeting rate cut probability dropping sharply from 58 basis points to about 27%, and today’s April meeting rate cut probability at 0%.

Today’s intra-day US March PPI data will be released, which is the most closely watched macro event in the next few hours. If PPI exceeds expectations again, the short-term pressure on gold increases; if PPI is below expectations, it opens a window for rate cut expectations to loosen, which is favorable for gold price recovery.

3. Strong US dollar—The most immediate short-term pressure source

The US dollar index remains strong amid high inflation and low rate cut expectations, and the negative correlation between gold and the dollar remains quite sensitive in the current environment. Many institutional analysts have already listed "US dollar trend" as the most direct short-term guiding factor for gold.

👉 Trading strategy:

Currently, with the uncertain outlook of the US-Iran situation, the market is in a stalemate. For upcoming positions, the small trader suggests maintaining a "short-term bearish, long-term bullish" approach. In the short term, consider shorting around the strong resistance at $4,800; for the long term, wait until the price pulls back to around $4,100–$4,200 to establish long positions. After all, from a long-term perspective, gold narrates a macro story about the restructuring of the global monetary system, geopolitical reshaping, and the paradigm shift of central bank behaviors. Within this framework, every correction could be a structural buying opportunity.