#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Institutions: Gold and silver both issued bearish signals in March; a full bull market restart may need to wait another six months

According to the latest report from Heraeus, a globally renowned precious metals analysis agency, both gold and silver released fairly clear bearish signals in March. This suggests that a full restart of the precious metals bull market may still need to wait about six months. Despite news that sovereign nations are selling and there are swap transactions, central banks in general still maintain a net buying posture for gold.
Federal Reserve policy dilemma: How to balance employment and inflation
In its report, Heraeus analysts noted that the Federal Reserve is currently facing a difficult choice regarding its interest rate policy.
They wrote: “As prices continue to rise and employment growth stalls, the Fed must strike a balance between its dual missions—supporting the goal of maximum employment and maintaining price stability.” Even if a ceasefire is reached in the Middle East, inflation may remain at relatively high levels for a period of time, which means the Fed is more likely to keep interest rates unchanged, and may even consider further rate hikes.
In March, the number of employed people in the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 178,000, significantly above the market expectation of 118,000. However, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in the past 12-month reports starting from January 2025, employment data for 11 months were revised downward, with an average revision of -51,000.
The analysts added: “Since recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic at the end of 2024, the total number of U.S. non-farm employed persons has remained relatively stagnant. If rising costs lead to slower economic growth, this would have a negative impact on the job market, and a weakening job market might force the Fed to lower the federal funds rate to stimulate the economy and employment.”
In addition, the probability of one to two rate cuts in 2026 has risen to 27.3% as of April 9, up sharply from 14.1% before the ceasefire agreement was announced on April 7.
Ceasefire news sparks a brief market rebound
Analysts said: “The market’s initial reaction to the ceasefire news was that assets that had been sold off rebounded, while the assets that had been rising (energy, the dollar) pulled back. This news supported precious metals prices and helped them finish last week higher.”
Central banks continue to buy gold: Net increase of 27 tons in February
The report shows that central banks in different countries continued to maintain a net buying of gold in February. That month, global central banks net bought 27 tons of gold, higher than January’s 5 tons.
Among them, the National Bank of Poland increased its gold holdings by 20.2 tons in February, the largest single-month increase since February 2025 (29 tons). Uzbekistan added 7.8 tons, and Kazakhstan added 7.7 tons. The main sellers were Turkey (reduced by 8.1 tons) and Russia (reduced by 6.2 tons).
This trend continues the long-term pattern since the global financial crisis, in which central banks around the world have been steadily accumulating gold. In 2025, global central banks added a total of 863 tons of gold to their reserves.
Gold technical outlook: Bearish engulfing pattern formed in March
Heraeus analysts pointed out that last month, gold formed a typical bearish engulfing pattern on the monthly chart: the opening price in March was higher than the previous month, but the closing price was lower than the previous month’s close. This pattern aligns closely with the timing when the precious metals bull market momentum stalled at the end of January and when the U.S. and Israel began military actions against Iran.
Historically, after a similar bearish engulfing pattern appeared in April 2022, gold prices fell for six consecutive months, dropping from 2,000 dollars per ounce all the way to 1,600 dollars per ounce.
The analysts believe that although similar price action has occurred, the current pullback may be absorbed by an ongoing bull trend, because higher inflation and lower real interest rates will continue to support gold demand. However, if last week’s upward trend reverses, the next key support level may be near the March low, around 4,100 dollars per ounce.
Silver market: Physical sales fall, but the first quarter remains stronger than last year
Heraeus analysts noted that in March, sales of physical silver bars and silver coins saw a clear decline. The Perth Mint’s March sales were 976,450 ounces, down sharply from the nearly 2 million ounces peak in February. However, total silver sales in the first quarter exceeded 4.6 million ounces, with the start of 2026 showing clearly stronger performance than 2025.
The U.S. Mint’s American Silver Eagle sales also edged down from 1.7 million ounces in February to 1.6 million ounces in March. With total sales over the first three months exceeding 8.1 million ounces, this was significantly higher than the 5.3 million ounces in the same period last year.
On the technical side, the silver monthly chart also shows a bearish engulfing pattern similar to gold. Analysts said this implies that before the bull market restarts, silver prices may experience several months of consolidation or a weaker trend characterized by sideways movement.
Summary
Although the Middle East ceasefire brought a short-term positive boost, the technical signals for gold and silver in March still lean toward caution. Heraeus analysts believe that the timing for the precious metals bull market restart may be pushed back to after another six months. During this period, sustained gold purchases by central banks will be an important backstop, while the Fed’s interest rate decisions and the global inflation trajectory will continue to dominate the precious metals market’s medium-term direction.