During periods of geopolitical turmoil, how should oil, cryptocurrencies, and gold be allocated?

#Crypto Market Rebound

As the U.S.-Iran maritime blockade becomes a reality, the correlation between traditional assets and crypto assets is being reshaped. Investors are most concerned with: how should the proportions be dynamically adjusted?

I propose a "Core + Satellite" strategy for reference:

· Oil (5%-10% allocation): As a direct beneficiary of "geopolitical shocks," oil prices are likely to rise quickly in the short term but are difficult to fall. However, once an agreement is reached, oil may quickly retreat, so it is suitable for small positions and speculative bets.
· Crypto assets (15%-20% allocation): Currently, the beta coefficient of crypto is much higher than gold, making it the best tool to capture "sentiment reversal." It is recommended to focus on BTC and ETH, with a small amount of DeFi blue chips. If an agreement is reached, the allocation can be increased further to 25%.
· Precious metals (10%-15% allocation): Gold remains a long-term ballast. Geopolitical conflicts have not disappeared; they are only temporarily eased. Regardless of the negotiation outcome, holding gold can hedge against tail risks.

The remaining 50%-60% is recommended to be allocated to short-term U.S. bonds or interest-bearing stablecoins to maintain liquidity. The key to dynamic adjustment is: if an agreement is reached, reduce oil and crypto; if the agreement breaks down, reduce crypto and increase gold.