Is the current market trend more inclined toward trend following or swing arbitrage?

The current phase is characterized by trend confusion, making a strategy primarily focused on swing arbitrage with trend following as a supplementary approach more suitable.

· Swing Arbitrage: Bitcoin has formed a clear box structure within the $70,000-$75,000 range. Combined with the continuously negative funding rates and crowded short positions, each test of support is an opportunity for low-buying in swings, while testing resistance is a good time to take partial profits.
· Trend Following: You can set $75,000 (closing above the 100-day moving average on the daily chart) as the right-side entry signal for trend confirmation. Before that, it’s not advisable to chase highs excessively; on the short side, since current short positions are extremely crowded, opening new shorts offers a less-than-ideal risk-reward ratio.

One sentence summary: Crowded shorts provide potential upward elasticity, but geopolitical and macroeconomic factors still impose constraints. The more suitable approach now is a flexible strategy of "rolling arbitrage within the range, adding positions after a breakout," rather than a firm bet on a single direction. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战