The market is betting "it won't hit?" History always favors optimism.

The recent market situation is simple: on one side, listening to diplomatic rhetoric, on the other, pretending not to hear the tank tracks.
The question is—are the US and Iran negotiating, or fighting?
The reality is: both sides have reasons to "must negotiate," and bottom lines that "cannot retreat." The US needs to curb inflation, stabilize oil prices, and secure the election; Iran needs to ease sanctions and recover its economy. But the sticking point is uranium enrichment—this isn't a technical issue, it's a matter of dignity.
So, the more likely scenario isn't "complete compromise," but—an ambiguous agreement plus phased de-escalation.
In other words: there won't be a true ceasefire, but they also dare not truly start fighting.
And what about the market? It has already pre-absorbed the "good ending." The S&P hitting new highs essentially means—funds are betting on the "most moderate version."
The problem is, once it actually materializes, a classic scenario is likely to occur:
👉 Positive news materializes → funds withdraw → technical correction
Because expectations have already been overextended.
As for allocations?
One sentence: don’t be fully bullish at the most optimistic moment.
Recommended structure:
* Core holdings: high-cash-flow assets (energy, resources)
* Defensive holdings: gold (to hedge against "negotiation collapse" tail risks)
* Offensive holdings: AI technology, but control your position size
Remember one thing:
The most dangerous moment in the market isn't bad news, but "everyone thinks it won't get worse." #美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈