Tonight's market focus is on the upcoming U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data, an important indicator for measuring the marginal changes in the U.S. employment market. This data often directly influences market judgments on the Federal Reserve's policy direction. The current expectation is 215k, lower than the previous 219k, indicating that the market generally believes employment remains resilient. If the actual reported figure continues to decline, it suggests the labor market remains tight, and short-term rate cut expectations will be suppressed, which from a liquidity perspective, imposes certain constraints on risk assets; conversely, if the data significantly exceeds expectations, it will reinforce market expectations for easing policies, leading to a recovery in sentiment.

From the technical perspective, Bitcoin and Ethereum are still in a generally oscillating and weak trading structure, with Bitcoin continuing to decline and lacking rebound momentum, and market sentiment remaining cautious. In such a structural context, the impact of macro data often shows a clear asymmetry, with negative news more easily amplified and positive news more easily absorbed or even weakened. Therefore, the data itself not only determines the direction but also depends critically on its resonance with the current trend.

Considering expectations and the technical structure, if the evening release is close to expectations, the market is likely to continue its current rhythm, mainly oscillating in a weak manner; if the data is below expectations, further strengthening the outlook for strong employment, it may trigger short-term selling pressure and push the market downward; even if the data exceeds expectations and forms a bullish signal, in the current weak structure, it is more likely to show a short-term rise followed by a pullback, with sustainability in doubt. Overall, the short-term trend leans toward oscillating and weak performance, and the conditions for a sustained upward move have not yet formed. Trading should remain disciplined and follow the trend. #美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈 $BTC