The talks on the ceasefire between the United States and Iran enter the final week

With the temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran set to expire on April 22, diplomatic efforts to extend the two-week truce are intensifying. Pakistan’s army chief, General Munir, arrived in Tehran on Wednesday in order to bridge deep divisions between Washington and Tehran. Meanwhile, global stock markets surged: the MSCI All-Country World Index rose by 0.3% to reach record levels on Thursday, its tenth consecutive session of gains, fully erasing the 9% losses incurred during the war.
US and Iranian officials are considering a two-week extension, even though both sides publicly deny having reached an agreement. The first face-to-face talks between the two countries, held in Islamabad last Saturday for more than 21 hours, failed to resolve three core issues: Iran’s nuclear program, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and war reparations. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is making a visit this week to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey to obtain Gulf support for the negotiations. Iran has said it has "not accepted" the US request for an extension and has demanded that Washington first honor its existing ceasefire commitments. White House spokesperson Karolyn Levitt said the administration has not "formally requested" an extension, but that it remains "actively engaged" in the discussions, confirming Pakistan as the only official mediator.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the most urgent challenge. Since the US-Israeli military strike against Iran on February 28, this crucial maritime route — which carries about one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade — has been nearly paralyzed. Before the war, the average daily traffic stood at 138 ships carrying 20 million barrels of oil; it has now fallen to fewer than 10 ships per day. On Monday, the Trump administration announced a complete naval blockade of Iranian ports, with the US Central Command saying that no ship managed to cross US lines within the 48 hours. The head of Iran’s joint military command, Ali Abdullahi, warned that if the blockade continues, Iranian forces "will not allow any import-export activity in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea." Analysts warn that this "blockade against blockade" dynamic could risk a rapid escalation, even though information suggests that some Iranian ships are trying to break through the blockade.
The expansion of Israel’s military operations in southern Lebanon is increasing external pressure. Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the forces to expand the buffer zone they established last month. Israel and Lebanon held indirect talks in Washington on Tuesday, with Trump saying on social media that the Israeli and Lebanese leaders will meet later this week — the first dialogue in about 34 years. According to Lebanese authorities, the conflict has caused more than 2,000 deaths and displaced 1 million people. A senior US official said that discussions in Lebanon and US-Iran negotiations are two separate tracks, but sources indicate that a ceasefire in Lebanon would be a positive signal for Iran’s participation in the next round of US-Iran talks.
Markets are pricing in an optimistic scenario: a peace agreement, the reopening of Hormuz, and normalized energy supplies. Brent has stabilized near $95 per barrel, far below $120 ’s previous monthly record. Asian stocks rose by 1.3%, nearly erasing all losses tied to the war, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for its ninth consecutive day — the longest streak since 2006 — signaling a major shift of safe-haven assets toward risk assets. However, several analysts warn that markets may be underestimating risks in real life. Trump’s rhetoric remains inconsistent, and the fundamental concerns that drove the latest bombing campaign — in particular Iran’s nuclear program — remain unresolved. Since the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities by the United States and Israel last June, the location of Iran’s uranium is unknown, and IAEA inspectors remain barred from Iran. Iran claims it has no weapons program; Wednesday, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Baghaei said that Iran’s right to "peaceful nuclear energy is non-negotiable," adding that uranium enrichment levels and the types "are negotiable."
Even if a ceasefire holds, the restoration of energy supplies faces serious obstacles. The International Energy Agency estimates that even with an immediate reopening of the strait, restoring normal oil transport would require 60 to 150 days. Goldman Sachs warned that if the strait remains closed for another month, the average Brent price could exceed $100 per barrel; a longer closure could push Q3 averages to 120 $. The blockade of the strait also affects the global fertilizer trade — about 30% of urea production and 20-30% of ammonia exports transit through this route. The UN’s FAO warned of risks of poor harvests and spikes in food prices if fertilizer and energy shipments are not restored quickly. Qatar’s finance minister said at the IMF spring meeting that current energy price increases are "just the tip of the iceberg," with "full impacts that will materialize in one to two months, causing massive economic shocks." The IMF has already warned that a prolonged closure of the strait could trigger a global recession.
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