Daily Market Analysis — BTC

Today, BTC’s movement is not much different from yesterday. In terms of details, the bigger structure is still in a state of pressing close to resistance; on the smaller timeframe, after breaking above the control line at 75180, there is clear selling pressure from the drop, but locally the structure has not broken down yet.
For this kind of move, the multi-side opportunities are only short-lived and limited within the smaller timeframe; they cannot form a larger-picture pattern. At the same time, you also need to watch out for the smaller timeframe producing a local top or a breakdown pattern, and then triggering a chain-reaction decline on the larger timeframe.
As for some friends’ question: is there a possibility of a big rally in this area?
The possibility of a big move exists at any time. However, Brother Tang’s trading system is: before the current resistance is broken, he does not bet on an ongoing contest with the upper band of the next range. Applied to the current market, it means: until the price effectively reclaims 75180-77337, the pressure in this area is just pressure—there’s no need to go into a battle near 84000. But if the price effectively breaks through around 77337 (time: 3-6 days), or first reaches near 84000 and then makes a second pullback into the 77337 area (space: more than 6%), then there is a chance to provide an ideal mid-term buy point.
From the daily chart and higher timeframes, the recent five days’ candle highs have all been running right along the control line at 75180, which has resistance significance. Both this area and above belong to a larger-scale composite resistance zone. The price has already approached resistance, but this is a period before a breakout; it is essentially taking on a nature of risking 5% downside space in order to gamble on a 1% upside move. Traders with strong technical skills should do it on the smaller timeframe—don’t chase rallies. Those whose technical skills are not up to par should take a break first.
From the 4H to 12H charts, the short-cycle support rising and the long-cycle resistance falling compress the price’s oscillation amplitude into an extremely narrow range. There is obvious selling pressure above the control line, but the bullish moving-average system stacked below is still there. If we try to explain this move using theory, it would be too complicated. Just remember two key points:
1. On the 4H timeframe, after the 7th’s tower-bottom formed, this is the third upward phase relying on MA30. Even though no right-side downward signal has appeared yet, the timing is about right. The mid-term positions picked up around 68000 earlier are still valid, and so are the aggressive orders picked up yesterday at 73722—both should pay attention to taking profit. At this stage, you only need to watch for a top forming in this area.
2. If, on the 12H timeframe, the candle starting at 8 a.m. on the 17th closes with a shooting star pattern, then you need to be on guard for a turning point that moves downward over the next few days.
Looking from the 1H and lower timeframes, the swing highs in this timeframe are riding on the larger-timeframe resistance area, and they come with multiple top-bid divergence patterns. This area currently doesn’t have much trading value.
Summary: The larger structure is pressing close to resistance; before a breakout, the upside space is limited. The smaller timeframe still hasn’t broken down, but it is hovering high—overall, the difficulty of trading is high. Rest is the main recommendation. Here are several monitored levels for you to reference:
Aggressive support: 73760-73320 (15-minute chart—quick in, quick out; don’t hold on)
Short-term support: 72710-72210 (15-minute chart—quick in, quick out)
Sharp drop pinpoint on the smaller timeframe: 71510-70330 (monitor with 1:2 leverage—orders can be set)
You can trade the gradual decline one by one; take profits sequentially. Don’t combine positions. Be cautious about entering at the sharp-drop short-term points!
Short-term resistance is in the range from the current price area to 77337-79111. Spot does not participate. For friends who like to sell high, you need to combine it with a confirmed structure to enter (either the larger timeframe reaching resistance or a small-timeframe breakdown and then a rebound). Don’t enter prematurely.
Pattern divergence and selling pressure: 80268-83280
Note: The more the push-up in a pressured range, the greater the energy released for a downward turn. Use the above levels to monitor. For friends who don’t have strong skills in watching the chart, you should observe more and act less recently. The earlier large-order limit orders remain unchanged. #BTC