Today early morning, the United States and Iran both sent signals of de-escalation. Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is now "completely open" to commercial shipping, and the removal of this critical geopolitical bottleneck, the world's most important, directly triggered a wave of liquidity and investor confidence release. Bitcoin immediately broke through the narrow trading range that had been oscillating since the outbreak of the war at the end of February, surpassing the $78,000 mark for the first time since February 3.

Senior strategist Matt Mena of 21Shares straightforwardly stated: "The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is exactly the 'risk return' signal that the global markets have been waiting for." However, Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere warned: "The market needs a clearer situation in the Strait of Hormuz and sustained institutional buying to convincingly break through the current range. If the ceasefire can be maintained, it will obviously be a major bullish factor; but if from now on, each week that the strait remains blocked, the consequences could multiply and worsen."

In addition to the short-term geopolitical catalysts, the ongoing entry of traditional financial giants is providing structural support for the market. Strategy firm has bought $2.6 billion worth of Bitcoin in the past two weeks; Charles Schwab announced plans to launch spot crypto trading services this year and suggested that clients could allocate up to 8.8% of their assets to Bitcoin; Goldman Sachs has also submitted an application for a Bitcoin ETF, marking its first direct move into the crypto investment field. This series of positive signals at the institutional level provides a bottom support logic for the market.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,000, operating within a strong upward channel on the 2-hour cycle. The upper band of the Bollinger Bands has been broken through to around $77,852, with the price running close to the upper band. Short-term bullish sentiment is high, and there are no obvious overbought correction signals, with upward momentum still continuing.

Regarding the MACD indicator, the DIF and DEA lines have formed a golden cross above the zero axis and continue to diverge, with the histogram bars enlarging consecutively, indicating that bullish energy is still accelerating and no top divergence signs have appeared. The MA7 and MA30 moving averages are in a bullish alignment, and the price is above all short-term moving averages, further confirming the medium-term upward trend. However, it should be noted that the price has faced "three rejections" above $78,000; the $75,000–$78,000 zone has been a core resistance band since before the sharp decline in February. There is obvious selling pressure above this level, making it difficult for buyers to sustain pushes, with precedents of rapid price pullbacks.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum is currently trading near $2,420, close to its highest level since the sharp decline in February. From the daily chart, ETH has slightly broken above the long-term downtrend channel's upper boundary and is testing the 100-day moving average and the $2,400 supply zone, which has been the most critical technical resistance area in recent months.

The 4-hour chart shows ETH consolidating above the resistance zone of $2,300–$2,400. The RSI reading is about 67, in a neutral to slightly strong zone, not yet entering overbought territory; but the MACD has shown a bearish death cross around 24.68, indicating short-term downside risk. Since early April, ETH has been forming a series of higher lows on the 4-hour chart, contrasting sharply with the multiple failed rebounds in March. All eyes are now on whether ETH can effectively break through and hold above $2,400.

Key upcoming observation points include: the progress of US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, whether Bitcoin can effectively hold above $78,000, and whether ETF capital flows will continue to recover. If Bitcoin can break through and stabilize above $78,000, the next target could be around $84,000; if it faces resistance again in the $75,000–$78,000 zone, there is a risk of retesting $73,000. $BTC