2026.04.18 Evening Review Notes on the Market Circle

Today is the weekend, Old Zhang went out for a tour, just got home and will review for everyone. Today's market gave a completely different answer from the early morning. The big brother retraced from the high point, probing toward 76,000; the second brother also slid from the high, touching 2,356. The "breakout then pullback" script predicted yesterday is playing out scene by scene. (Although the points given yesterday were wiped out, losses are normal; not taking losses would be abnormal. Trading isn't about who predicts best, but who survives longer. Losing on a single trade isn't scary; what's scary is doing random things after a loss.)
Big brother review: retraced to support, but the structure rings alarm bells
Price precisely retested the lower boundary of yesterday’s defined observation zone at 76,200-76,800, which, from the SMC framework, is the first test of the new order zone (Order Block) formed after the breakout.
But several synchronized signals make this test full of suspense:
• Weakening momentum: 4-hour MACD forming a death cross, a signal to watch for weakening.
• Short-term bearish dominance: 15-minute level shows a clear bearish arrangement, and the average trend index remains high, indicating a strong short-term downtrend.
• Genuine selling pressure: decline accompanied by increased volume, not just a technical pullback, implying real selling pressure is emerging.
Core contradiction: the large-level (4-hour) bullish structure remains intact, but the smaller-level momentum has weakened. The key question now is: is this a healthy upward continuation (discount zone), or the beginning of trend weakening?
My reasoning:
• For long holders: should firmly move stop-loss up to around 74,500 (previous low and structural support), which is the risk control bottom line. If not broken, hold and watch the market.
• For those waiting to enter: avoid guessing bottoms on the left side. The ideal entry scenario is when the price finds support in the more critical demand zone of 74,500-75,000 and shows clear small-level structural upward signals.
Key observation point: 74,500 is the last line of defense for the bullish structure. If broken with volume, the short-term situation will turn bearish, and attention should be paid to the 72,000-73,000 area below.
Second brother review: deeper correction, approaching key demand zone
The second brother’s retracement is deeper than the big brother’s, consistent with its higher volatility. Price has broken below the initial support of 2,380-2,400 mentioned yesterday, moving toward the next stronger demand zone.
Current structure shows:
• Short-term downtrend is fierce: 15-minute trend is very strong downward.
• Testing breakout validity: price is retesting the neckline of the previous "double bottom" pattern, with 2,300-2,350 becoming the “acid test” for breakout validity.
• Critical point for bulls and bears: 4-hour trend structure is not yet completely broken but is in danger.
My reasoning:
• For long holders: use 2,300 as the final line of defense; this level must not be lost.
• For those waiting to enter: focus on the 2,300-2,350 zone. Only consider entering if the price shows clear stabilization and structural upward breakout signals in this area.
Key observation point: 2,300 is the lifeline for the success or failure of the "double bottom" breakout structure. Once lost, it indicates a larger adjustment, and the market will seek support around 2,200-2,250.
A few final words:
1. For those without positions: patience above all. Wait for the price to enter the above “ideal observation zone” and confirm bullish signals. No signals, better to watch from the sidelines.
2. For those holding positions: discipline over belief. Strictly execute trailing stop-loss plans, use rules to protect principal and profits, and let holdings withstand market tests “worry-free.”
3. About contrarian operations: chasing shorts at the current position is no longer appropriate. Any thoughts of shorting against the trend should wait for a rebound to the resistance zones (Big brother 78091-78272, Second brother 2459-2462) and for signs of stagnation again, then consider, and only with very small positions as tactical probes.
Survival is always more important than quick gains. Let’s encourage each other.
This is a personal deep-night market observation and strategy deduction based on the SMC framework, only recording personal thoughts, not investment advice. Market risks are unpredictable; please make independent decisions and bear the consequences. $BTC $ETH