$BTC BTC breaking above 78000 is the end; medium-term short positions are to be held.

At some levels, once they’re broken, the outcome has already been written. When the price was still around 74000, I reminded you: if you’re trading short-term, you need to add longs here rather than short. If you’re shorting, you need to wait for the market to rally up into the 77000-78000 area to consider medium-term shorts. Once the 77800 level is broken, stop-loss entries for shorts are triggered early—combined with a liquidity trap—then it is at a key resistance zone, making it very hard for it not to drop.

Some people will say this is caused by news, but before the rally, I didn’t know the strait would allow passage, and I didn’t know the strait would close when the price rallied to 78000. News is just a tool; hunting liquidity is the goal. I’ve said many times: in a bear market, it’s all about liquidity. Where liquidity is high, prices go. And now, from the liquidation chart, it’s very clearly shown that liquidity is below.

BTC’s daily chart shows a wave of rally, and it is also about to form a high-level consolidation range. These are all signals that favor a decline. I don’t expect this to immediately turn downward, but I need to see this area form into a high-level range. Once the bottom of the range is broken, it’s the start of a new round of decline. Now the market’s pace depends on whether it consolidates and falls or continues falling. If it continues, it will be highly consistent with the prior pattern. In any case, it’s bearish—bearish—bearish.

BTC’s weekly chart: if this week forms an extremely long upper-wick candle, next week we will see an engulfing candle, and that is a signal that the rebound has ended. Short-term strong support is still around 73500. Here, the body breaks below the small-level upward momentum—once that momentum is broken, it shifts into a trend of decline—rebound—then further decline. After breaking 73500, a rebound would be a new lower swing high. Before that, we’re still looking for a high-level consolidation trend that’s slightly bearish.

In summary, the bigger trend remains bearish. Hold short positions around 77200 and above. Next week, watch for the weekly engulfing setup—this is an important sign of a rebound reversal. Short-term support is at 73500. After it breaks, the rebound rhythm changes, switching to decline—rebound—then further decline. In the near term, you only need to watch whether the market is seeing a sideways-falling consolidation or a continuous decline. For now, don’t consider any long positions. Intraday short-term resistance is around 76800.