The current US-Iran conflict remains in a tug-of-war phase, and the market has not formed a consensus expectation on "whether to escalate further." This uncertainty itself will continue to disturb the pricing of risk assets; the tension on the energy front is being continuously priced in, with oil prices showing upward momentum, thereby supporting inflation expectations and indirectly suppressing market imagination of monetary easing. Against this backdrop, funds are generally more inclined to reduce risk exposure, and market sentiment is characterized by phased contraction rather than a trend of expansion. This is also the core reason why various risk assets have frequently experienced sharp rises followed by declines and repeated fluctuations recently.

Regarding the short-term trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum, I lean more towards a sideways and slightly weak rhythm in the short term. As long as the Middle East situation does not show clear easing, risk appetite will be difficult to sustain in recovery, and the continuity of upward momentum will be significantly limited, mainly manifesting as a rebound followed by renewed pressure; at the same time, since there has been no systemic liquidity crisis in the market, there is also support below, so the trend will not evolve into a one-sided decline, but rather fluctuate with repeated dips and digestion. Simply put, in the short term, the greater probability is a tug-of-war with "pressure above and support below," with a slightly bearish bias, but without conditions for a sustained decline. Whether it can turn stronger later depends crucially on whether there are substantive signs of easing in the geopolitical situation. #Gate13周年现场直击 $BTC