Over the past couple of days, I’ve seen a lot of people watching on-chain for large transfers and changes in exchanges’ hot and cold wallets, and then starting to shout, “Smart money is here.” I’ll also save screenshots… but honestly, that can only work as an emotional temperature gauge—it can’t be a conclusion.

Recently, I’ve been looking at the yields of LST/re-staking, and I feel the core issue is still “where does the money come from”: part of it is the block rewards from the original staking plus the incentive “candies” issued by each protocol, and the other part is taking the same security and selling it again (you package the risk and hand it over to someone else). Later, I found that the risk is hiding right here: once something goes wrong in the underlying layer, rules change, or a certain step gets attacked/penalized, the domino effect quickly isn’t just “earning a little less”—it could mean liquidity gets stuck or the price drops directly. Anyway, I don’t dare to look at yields based on numbers alone. I’ll first see what it’s actually selling and who is standing behind it. I’ll save the chart for now, and we’ll talk again after I figure it out.