When I examine recent movements in the gold and silver markets, an interesting situation emerges. Looking at the data from Perth Mint, silver sales dropped to 976,000 ounces in March; this is significantly below the 2 million ounces in February. Clearly, demand has somewhat weakened.

From a technical perspective, Heraeus analysts see bearish signals in both gold and silver. Especially the March candlestick formations are noteworthy; bearish engulfing patterns have formed in both metals. Such candlestick formations have historically indicated significant declines. For example, in 2022, a similar situation caused gold to fall from $2,000 per ounce to $1,600, all within about six months.

The current critical support level is around $4,100, the March low. If this level is broken, we could see further consolidation. Analysts believe the market may need to wait a few more months before turning into a bullish rally.

However, there is also an optimistic side. Central banks continue to buy gold; with Poland's purchase of 20 tons, there was a net increase of 27 tons in February. Inflation and declining real interest rates seem to continue supporting gold. On the silver side, first-quarter sales exceeded last year's, ending at 8.1 million ounces. So, although technical candlestick patterns indicate a decline, macro factors remain positive. In short, after this consolidation period, we may see a rebound.