⚠️ U.S. stock valuation alert: When the narrative of "this time is different" rings again

Data observations:

• The S&P 500 cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) is approaching 40, in the top 5% of historical levels

• Nvidia's single-stock market value exceeds the total of the A-shares ChiNext, highlighting concentration risk

• Economic growth rate (2%) significantly diverges from the pace of market valuation expansion

Historical echoes:

• 2000 Internet bubble: Nasdaq rose 400% amid the "new economy" narrative, then fell 78%

• Before the Great Depression in 1929: the stock market hit a high amid the "permanent prosperity" narrative, then declined 89%

• Commonality: extreme valuations, narrative fanaticism, risk selectively ignored

Practical significance for investors:

1. This is not a prediction of rise or fall, but a warning that the risk-reward ratio is deteriorating

2. Position management is more important than directional judgment: consider reducing U.S. stock exposure to a balanced level

3. Conduct stress tests: can your holdings withstand a 20-30% correction?

Rational choices:

While enjoying the trend benefits, gradually realize some profits, increase cash and defensive assets. Better to earn less than to suffer large losses.

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