I noticed an interesting signal on the Bitcoin chart. On the three-day timeframe, a so-called death cross has formed — when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. This is one of those technical patterns that has historically signaled serious trouble for the price.

Since 2014, every time such a crossover appeared during a bear market, Bitcoin has then fallen sharply. During the 2022 downturn and the 2018 crypto winter, the asset lost about 52%. And in 2014, it was even worse — a 57% drop. Now the situation looks similar: the price is trading below both trend lines, and the momentum has been lost.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading around $77.7K, but if history repeats itself, a 52% decline from the crossover point would put it into the $36K area. This lines up with the Fibonacci extension level of 1.618, which previously marked the bottoms during bearish markets. Analysts are talking about an accumulation zone from $40K to $36K — that’s where you should take a closer look.

The rally to $74K at the start of the month was caused by a short squeeze and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, but it quickly ran out of steam. It’s interesting that during the rally, BTC moved alongside the strengthening dollar — an unusual correlation that has been in place since late 2024. But the pullback wiped out most of the weekend gains.

As for momentum — the RSI on the 14-day chart shows 45.93, which is in the neutral zone. Not critical, but also not bullish. The overall picture points to market pressure, especially if this death cross keeps following its historical logic.