The future direction presented by the most resilient consumption and labor market-related data in the United States is relatively clear. It is expected that the growth pressure in the United States will gradually increase in the second half of the year, and a mild recession may not even be ruled out. With regard to inflation, the Federal Reserve’s stance is not so dovish this time. Powell said that the committee may think that inflation will not fall back soon, so it is not realistic to cut interest rates soon. The decline in inflation is still the general direction, but because of the base factor, the decline in core inflation will be significantly slower in the next few months. Therefore, in this sense, the second half of the year may be the time to see a more obvious relief of inflationary pressure. Credit further dampens demand. The market expects that the fall in CPI in April may be weaker than market expectations. On the whole, the tone of this meeting is generally neutral. On the one hand, it further hints that the end of interest rate hikes is approaching, but at the same time, it is slightly less dovish in terms of the timing of inflation and interest rate cuts. The fermentation of short-term bank risks and the approaching of the debt ceiling, as well as the CPI data in April, may lead to a risk-aversion style. Against this background, U.S. debt and gold still have some support, but we remind the current market that there are too many expectations for interest rate cuts. Once the risk subsides temporarily, it may face the pressure of taking back. From a medium-term perspective, the current transition from tight money to tight credit is likely to put pressure on growth, which will also help achieve a faster decline in inflation. The rising risk of recession and falling inflation in the second half of the year mean that there is still an opportunity to gradually cut interest rates by the end of the year.