Objectively speaking, the possibility of US national debt default is relatively small. Biden of the United States sent an optimistic signal to the market. Biden said that the United States will not default and is confident in reaching the debt ceiling. Judging from the debt crisis and economic recession, there is very little room for the Fed to raise interest rates in the second half of the year. The current question is not how far the terminal interest rate can go, but when it can cut interest rates. Having said that, if the United States does default on its debt, what impact will it have? What about Bitcoin? U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has deliberately downplayed the fallout by describing the fallout as severe hardship for American families, with a U.S. default that would trigger the equivalent economic fallout of a nuclear bombing. Like a cascade of nuclear weapons, the devastation will occur in two stages. The initial impact would include an interruption to various government payments, potentially anything from Social Security checks to big-money military contracts. This would lead to an immediate and sharp decline in traditional indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) and the stock market. Given recent evidence of a strong correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks, this is sure to hit Bitcoin's short-term price as well. Although the possibility of debt default is relatively small. But its potential impact is so great that even the slightest chance is already priced in the market.