Speculation and reactions before and after the Bitcoin halving

This article mainly introduces the possible market trends and coping strategies before and after the Bitcoin halving, which is based on the previous Bitcoin halving situation and the possible market according to the current market. Friends who have read this article had better read the previous article first, and I won't explain the previous article.
Summary of future trends
To put it bluntly, there are only three types of market movements: up, down, and volatile. The subsequent probable markets cannot escape these three markets. It would be foolish to speculate that the market will go this way, and if the subsequent market goes this way, we just need to know how to deal with it.
Upside: A break above today's pressure level and standing above 69,000 can be seen as upside.
There are two possible upside scenarios:
1. To set the previous high, but there is no breakthrough in the past or a little breakthrough to come down, this situation is very simple, don't get confused, don't chase high. It is not even necessary to leave the market, and if you feel that your position is heavy, you can reduce your position.
2. Continue to hit new highs after breaking through the previous high, and stand firm for at least 3 days. Pay attention to the strength of the breakout, whether it is a strong pull within 3 days to 1 week, or a shock upward, it is relatively reluctant.
If the trend is strong and rises rapidly after the breakout, you can wait and see, and then increase your position when there is a big regression (at least about 10% of the regression); If the trend is not strong and it is difficult to rise by two or three thousand points, it is recommended to reduce positions at new heights to prevent virtual breakouts.
The likelihood of a continuation of the rally is relatively low now. If the second scenario arises and the trend is not strong enough after the breakout, be wary of a sharp plunge.
Fall: Continue to fall, below the lower edge of the shock range produced by the V reversal at 62000.
In fact, in the previous article, I have already told you the key points and strategies of the decline, so I will not repeat them, this time I will mainly talk about the market before and after the first half of the halving, as well as other possible situations.
The second halving was on 2016.07.10
This halving is that Bitcoin surged 78% in a month on the eve of the halving, and there was a deep retracement after the halving, falling by 30% in a week, and at most even 40%.
Then it started all the way up, from less than 500 to almost 20,000. The last 10% drop was because there were thunderstorms in the trading at the time, which was bearish. Not to be bearish, the price of the currency retraced by 30% after the halving.
The third halving 2020.05.12
20 years is familiar to everyone, because of the emergence of 312, a rare black swan in history, so the previous decline is greater, if you don't consider this bearish, the pie also has a 20% pullback in the week before the halving.
After the halving, there was a rally, but it didn't go much higher, and it was all spent in the shock. From the high before the halving in early May, it has been oscillating until the end of July before breaking through to the upside, and it has been fluctuating for 3 months, with two pullbacks of more than 10% in between.
As can be seen from the first two halves, there will be a pullback in the pie before and after the halving. But now that everybody knows, the pie will go up after the halving, so what will happen this time? I think there are two possibilities.
Malicious shredding
The big institutions know that we see Bitcoin going up, and they're bullish too, but they don't want us to be able to hold it with peace of mind, they want to chop leeks. Then there may be malicious smashing. There are two possible scenarios.
1. After falling below the box, the downside test the 59000 support level, and then fall again, break through one or two thousand points, and recover within three days, then the probability is that it has bottomed out and can enter the market.
2. An actual break below 59000 to test the downside at the 30% level. It's unclear what exactly happened when it fell into place. All I know is that if there is no black swan, this is the position of extreme technology. These have already been discussed in the previous article.
Seize market opportunities
1. We all know that the bull market is coming, don't you hurry up to enter the market? A few days after landing, this situation is an extreme market, chasing up is definitely not chasing up, you can only hold a position and wait, or you can understand the entry in the early stage of the rise, or wait for a larger callback to enter.
2. The shock market, that is, the maintenance of the last market, is here to shake, and the end of the shock begins to rise. According to the preemption speculation, the impact time will be shorter than the last time, three months last time, this time it will be about two months at most, and it may be over at least a month.
There is nothing to say about the volatile market, if there are 2-3 weeks, the pie has not been able to fall below the new low, just buy the dip.
Unsure of what kind of market will emerge in the end, I'm more inclined to fall or fluctuate. It's the last week of the month, and there's a good chance there's no direction.
Wait until the last minute hype at the beginning of next month, maybe there will be a good rebound, and then it will land well. At the end of the day, it depends on how the market reacts.
Finally, I'd like to talk about my thoughts on timing nodes
In recent years, in May and June, the pie market has not been very impressive, either shocking or falling. 19 was an exception, but the price of Bitcoin was very low at that time, and April was just starting from the bottom. There has also been an increase in 17 years, and the reference time beyond that is of little significance.
The months of May and June have never been better since 20 years later. If the bottom can be established in March-April, the market in May-June is worth looking forward to, if it can't be done, but the structure of the top is formed, then May-June is still the same as in previous years.
Ethereum also has ETF application deadlines in May, and if you compare pies, you know that there will definitely be speculation. But whether it will pass or not, even if it passes, there will be short-term benefits. So it's really hard to say what will happen in May-June.
After June, the Fed will certainly look for an opportunity to start cutting interest rates for the first time, which is recognized and will inevitably be hyped in advance. Then after the first rate cut, there may be a short-term positive landing, and then the second half of the bullish market begins.
We have only been in the market for half a year, if you haven't entered the market yet, please take advantage of every pullback opportunity behind, this is not a terrible signal, but an opportunity to get more results in the coming year.