1. In terms of time: The next fall has lasted for 50 days since mid-March. According to the historical rhythm of BTC, during the 17 and 21 years of Bull Market, the pullback bottomed out longest and lasted only 35 days. Therefore, this round of downward falls took much longer than in the past

2. From the moving average: some coin just retraced the weekly MA20 (BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, BCH), some retraced the weekly MA60 (OP, APT), and some completely fall (ARB). BTC retraced the weekly MA20 longing during the 17-year Bull Market and did not retrace the weekly MA20 during the 21-year Bull Market. Therefore, it can be determined that the rhythm of this round of BTC is different from that of 21 years
3. Emotionally: This Falling Rebound is not accompanied by strong bullish sentiment (funding, contract open interest, contango), and the lower the price, the heavier the falling sentiment. It's completely different from the mood before the appearance of 312 and 519
Let's talk about the point of view:
1. The weekly Bull Market is still ongoing. The weekly moving average is still a perfect longing arrangement, and this falling is only a retracement of the weekly MA20. This trend is very common in U.S. stocks, but it has not occurred in the historical trend of BTC (referring to the long pullback of this time).
There are concerns about the long-term choppy trend after the end of the 19-year bull. At that time, the weekly moving average was in a state of entanglement, and now it is a perfect longing arrangement of the weekly line, so it is believed that this correction will not take as long as after the end of the Bull Market in '19
2. Optimistically, there should be a strong rebound in the current weekly MA20, and you can pay attention to the market performance in the next 1 or 2 weeks. Pessimistically, if the longest is weak, it can also Sideways low Fluctuation above the weekly MA20. Either way, the future will continue to hit new highs.
BTC fall possibility of breaking the weekly MA20 and going to the weekly MA60 is subjectively considered extremely small
3. It is very long altcoin that this round of downward fall has been thoroughly fall (1 because most of the altcoin open interest are at a low level, and 2 is that if the fall continues to fall, it will destroy the long alignment of the weekly moving average, and it will take a long time to sort it out in the future).
Combined with BTC.D, it is at a high level, so it is possible to keep an eye on the opportunities of the alt season. Personally, I will try to do some altcoin short term chasing long next
Finally, some thoughts:
1. The market is breaking some traditional laws of crypto world again and again (there was no buying climax in May '21, there was no continuous rise in the new high at the end of '21, the Bear Market fall broke the high of the last round of Bull Market in '22, and the adjustment time of the new high in '24 was the longest in history). Therefore, in the future, the unique laws of the crypto world will gradually become completely invalid
2. Before BTC hit a new high, I already expected that this round of Bull Market would step back on the weekly MA20 longest times like in 17 years, instead of directly not stepping back on the weekly MA20 like in 21 years to pull to the top (I personally think that the peak of the 21-year Bull Market is May instead of November).
Because if Bull Market wants to last for a long time, then it must be a large pullback change of hands like 17 years in the middle to lengthen the Bull Market process and give newcomers more long time to enter the market. If it pulls as sharply as it did in '21, the Bull Market will last for a shorter time.
But this round of adjustments is still quite unexpected. Because during the adjustment, the emotional side was already more pessimistic (reaching the level of the adjustment in January '21), but it continued to fall subsequently
Finally, from the perspective of shorts, the structure of March ~ May is a distribution structure, which is not unreasonable. But looking at the weekly line, there is not enough time. Even if it is distributed here, BTC will have the need to go to the front high test again in the future, and alt coins will take advantage of this time to pump and dump shipments. So don't worry about Spot
#本轮牛市哪一个加密叙事最吸引你？