#目前行情震荡下行，牛还在吗？

Why is this cycle so tormenting that everyone is distressed? We can boil it all down to the fact that under the current market structure, retail investors can no longer make much money.

The answer to why retail investors are difficult in this cycle is very simple: because "transactions" like infrastructure tokens will no longer rise 500-fold in the encryption market. And now there is a more interesting playground not far from us, with better meme memes.

We're actually recreating what used to happen in the VC/IPO market.

In these markets, companies remain privatized for longer, which means that more long upside short are "privatized" (e.g. VC funds) that are simply out of reach for retail investors.

Crypto has been reversing this and democratizing access to asymmetric upside shorts. But that's changed now! L1 and L2 long long to raise money from VC! There is no public Token Sale, venture capital makes a lot of money, and retail investors are greatly affected. Perhaps the shattering of retail dreams in this cycle is not so surprising.

One of the main reasons why companies have remained privatized for longer is that VC capital is five times long larger than it was 10 years ago. Companies can now raise more than $1 billion in private sale markets while avoiding public market-related overhead.

The issuance price of SOL in 2020 was $0.22, and four years later, the price was $140, or 636 times the return over a four-year period, and probably outperformed almost all VC returns in the past five years.

There are bigger structural problems in the market. These large-scale L1 and L2 fundraisings resulted in billions of dollars in pre-token issuance valuations. This creates two problems: huge seller pressure, and high FDV.

In my view, a large part of the structural problem that has long alts this cycle is that the selling pressure of VCs has not been offset by the inflow of retail funds. If you raise $500 million before the issuance, the final selling pressure will be $500 million (theoretically, if the token price pumps up, the selling pressure will be even greater).

We've been debating the meme coin finger point, but that's definitely not the point. Meme coins are not the problem, the problem is our current market structure.

We need to break through the current market fog and return to our democratic roots.