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In just 4 days, BTC has fallen by nearly 16,000 points! This big dump is mainly due to a series of attacks, such as Miner Capitulation, continuous selling by the German government, Mt. Gox selling expectations, and Mt. Gox compensation triggering market panic. This crazy fall is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the bulls. Then, on the following Friday, we had the non-farm payrolls. Many people had hoped for it, but unfortunately, the thunder was loud and the rain was small. After the release of the non-farm data, the probability that the Fed will maintain the Interest Rate in August was 95.3% (previously 91.2%), and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will maintain the Interest Rate in September has dropped to 24.8% (previously 27.4%), and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 71.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 3.4%. The slowdown in US non-farm employment growth provides a reason for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. Recruitment slowed in June, and data from the previous months was also revised downward, enhancing the possibility of starting interest rate cuts in the coming months. Data released on Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non-farm employment increased by 206,000 last month, while the number for the previous two months was revised downward by 111,000. Economists surveyed predicted a median of 190,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% and the average hourly rate of rise also cooled. The encryption market, under the influence of the news, emerged from the big dump yesterday. After the bloodbath, the market is now tending to stabilize. After this bloodbath, the pattern of the AltCoin market, in particular, will change, and some currencies will go to zero and be delisted.
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After breaking the 60000 mark, BTC plummeted. Yesterday, it also broke down during the day, hitting a new low since March. The market broke through several short-term long support points and directly touched around 53300. Currently, sentiment has slightly improved, and the trend has rebounded from around 53300 to around 57000. Looking at the hourly chart, the market has reversed, with strong resistance above. The RSI value is close to the Oversold zone but has not entered the extreme Oversold state. The daily chart is bearish, and the short and medium-term EMA averages are currently shorting. There is a possibility of further decline. The key focus in the future is to follow the breakthrough of 58800. If the rebound fails to break through the resistance areas at 57800 and 58800, it means that a pullback will likely commence. Perhaps the short-term market will enter a consolidation phase over the weekend. Overall, the main strategy remains bearish, with a focus on following 57800 and then looking at the 58800 area. On the downside, follow the 55500-53500 levels.
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The trend of Ethereum is linked to the broader market. Yesterday, it narrowly held the 2800 level during the trading session and saw a slight Rebound in the evening. Currently, the price is running near the 2990 level. The short-term trend is still weak, as the Bollinger Band's midline continues to move downward, with four consecutive bearish days on the daily chart and the lower gap already open. The resistance above is slowly shifting downward. If the intraday Rebound fails to stabilize above the 3050-3120 range, there is still a downside risk. The current trend is oscillating and consolidating. Whether the weekend market will consolidate within a range depends on the key support and resistance levels. The overall trend is currently bearish. It is recommended to focus on short positions for Rebound in trading operations.