[Love]【Reasons for the decline】

1: (Technical Formation) The 68500/70000 resistance level warned of the risk of retracement several times last week because this level is a double resistance level in the daily chart structure, with a large number of loss-making positions gathered above it, strong selling pressure, and obvious volume shrinkage since the Rebound on July 5th. The formation showed a stagnant rise, so it is difficult to break through this level at once. From the structural formation, BTC must retreat (three or five waves) and regain strength before breaking through the resistance zone.
2: (News) Many people believe that despite the perfect data exceeding expectations last night, the big dump in the US and encryption markets was due to the fact that the interest rate cut in September had been speculated for several months and the results are now certain. Yesterday, the unemployment rate hit its highest level since 2021 and the Sam index (a recession signal) was also released. Therefore, the market traded with a logic of avoiding risks and panic spread to global financial markets. Yesterday's data was long-term favorable information, representing a recession in the US economy, which means that the pace of US point shaving has been accelerated. Short-term unfavorable information is all caused by emotional factors. For the macro economy, BTC's more important factors are the halving cycle, liquidity, and on-chain data. There is no need to worry too much about the existence of a bull market.
[love][About trends]
The overall trend of the weekly and monthly charts remains unchanged. The current trend of BTC in the small cycle is as expected. BTC has already formed a five-wave retracement pattern of the four-hour structure, and is currently running in the fifth wave. The reversal point of this retracement is around 64500-65000 (yellow downward trend line). If BTC breaks through and stabilizes above this level, the market will confirm a phase bottom and start a new rise. Due to the low volume during the weekend, the market will mainly oscillate at the bottom, and it is important to follow the situation of the Market Maker time period next week. In the short term, you can follow the resistance level at 62300 in the evening. If the bullish trend breaks through and stabilizes, there will be a rebound action at 63000-63500; otherwise, it will still oscillate and consolidate. Often, at the beginning of a retracement, altcoins fall first and then BTC does not fall but explodes the contract, which is a sign of the end of the adjustment. There are currently two types of trend rehearsals.
1: BTC Rebound strong, the market will break through and stabilize at the 64500-65000 resistance level, starting a new round of pump.
2: BTCRebound does not break the resistance level. In the future, there will be a second retracement, and a quick pullback after a Long Wick Candle in the 59000-59800 area, then the pump will start.
Regardless of the trend, the market remains bullish. Currently, all unfavourable information has been released, and the market will be driven by favourable information such as interest rate cuts, elections, and FT.X compensation, entering the second phase of the Bull Market. This is a greater opportunity than risk, and the expected pullback has already arrived. Embrace it and follow the strategy to make proper arrangements, staying away from noise.
[Love] [Spot Strategy]
At the 70000 prompts, reduce the position of swing trading Position. Yesterday morning and evening, everyone completed the action to increase the position. The current increase in the position also has unrealized gains. Currently, the Spot Position synchronized with it is about 80-90%, and the remaining 10-20% of the Position should be left untouched for future defensive use, in case the cryptocurrency retests the low point and triggers a Long Wick Candle to break through the 60,000 liquidation contract. At that time, we will fully commit again. If there is no Long Wick Candle, we can wait for the breakthrough trendline to pull back before making flexible short-term swing trading positions. For those who have already completed the layout of ETH, they can hold it without understanding. For those with a cost of around 3000-3100 who still have a Position and want to continue adding, they can consider fully committing when retesting 2800-2900 for the second time.