#铸造交易HMSTR PreToken，提前锁定空投收益 Over the weekend, there was consolidation at a low level. BTC briefly tested the 52000 level on Saturday and then pulled back to 54000, where it consolidated on Sunday morning. Pay attention to this level, which is similar to the position after the automatic rebound from the Long Wick Candle on 8/5. In just over a month, there have been repeated attempts at the 55000 level.

Where does the support in BTC's pessimism come from? Is 49000 a definite bottom?
As for the current market situation, I think what everyone is more concerned about is where are the remaining supports for the continued decline?
I looked at the situation of the moving averages MA and EMA. From the 7-day to the highest 200-day moving average, there are not many effective supports below. If we look at the monthly chart, the most crucial support is at 44,000. This position can be said to be a very pessimistic position.
I looked at the market data again, and the 3-day MA120 has run to around 52,700. Currently, the most intuitive and effective support is at this level. In addition to support, what everyone is more concerned about is whether the previous low of 49,000 in the daily candlestick is a deterministic bottom, which is very important for the current trend.
If so, this decline can be stopped above 49,000, oscillate, Rebound, then we will basically usher in a better structural stable trend. If not, if 49,000 is broken, the decline expands, and there is a lack of effective major support below, then we really need to look at faith.
My personal expectations are not actually optimistic for the moment.
1. Currently, there is no effective data or favourable information that can drive longs rebound or reverse prices in terms of macro-narrative. The mainstream narrative is interest rate cuts, but interest rate cut narratives are ineffective. Interest rate cut narratives of 25 basis points are ineffective. Only under the premise of stable economy, a 50 basis point interest rate cut may have an economic boosting effect, but it may not necessarily reverse the market trend.
2, the short-term price continues to fluctuate and fall, although it has temporarily stopped falling, but the hourly level, including the daily and weekly moving averages, have started to move down, and there is no divergence, the price may get closer and closer to the 49,000 point.
And at present, the sensitive period before and after the interest rate cut, especially after the interest rate cut, the market may be overly sensitive to economic data, especially bad data. In this tense atmosphere, the buffer zone to 49,000 is clearly not enough.
So, I think the market outlook for next week may not be too optimistic, unless there is a reversal of the decline, a pump in fluctuation, providing enough buffer zone for 49,000, otherwise, once the interest rate is lowered, there is a high possibility of a significant fluctuation directly piercing the 49,000 level.
Currently, we need to first determine whether the 52,700 at the 3-day line level has become an effective support, whether it can rebound, and whether it can effectively stimulate buying volume. If the support at this level is insufficient, then the vicinity of 49,000 is really dangerous. Of course, not being optimistic does not mean letting everyone be pessimistic. Take one step at a time. Absolutely do not stand at 50,000 and look at 20,000, this kind of overly pessimistic bearish is meaningless and can only consume oneself mentally.