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Seven swing states all turned red, Trump revealed his trump card, and the US election is almost 'unpredictable'
At present, it is still too early to say that the US election is "almost without suspense," despite Trump's "turning red" in all seven swing states and revealing his trump card, there are still many uncertainties:
1. The volatility of swing state elections:
- The lead in the polls is weak: According to data from relevant polling websites, Trump is slightly ahead of Harris in polls in seven swing states, with an average lead of about 0.9%. Such a small difference is very likely to change due to various factors. In previous elections, until the last moment, the intentions of swing state voters were difficult to determine, and their political positions were not fixed. They often made choices based on their own interests and the changing social environment.
- Historical precedent warning: The 2000 election between Bush and Gore is an example, when Gore was leading for most of the time, but Bush ultimately won. So even though Trump currently has an advantage in swing states, it doesn't guarantee the final election outcome.
2. The uncertainty of the electoral college system: The final result of the US presidential election is determined by the electoral college votes. Although the electoral college votes in swing states play a crucial role, they do not completely determine the election outcome. The allocation and vesting of electoral college votes involve certain complexities and uncertainties, which may be influenced by various factors such as election disputes, legal actions, etc.
3. Impact of the election campaign:
- Harris team's counterattack: There is still some time before the voting day, and Harris and his team will not sit back and wait. They may seek to win the support of voters by holding campaign rallies, promoting their policy positions, and uncovering negative information about Trump, which may change the current electoral situation.
- Trump's Risks: Trump has made many extreme remarks, such as threatening to make the United States 'run with blood' and showing clear hostility towards immigrants, ethnic minorities, and other groups. Although these remarks and actions can consolidate his support base, they may also alienate some swing voters and even trigger social unrest.