Predict the US election

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The global attention to the US presidential election has probably not been as strong since the Cold War. This is because the personality-prominent Mr. Know-it-all, Trump, who defeated Hillary and became the 58th president of the United States, is making a comeback. This time, can Trump defeat his female opponent Harris (haha) for the second time? Or will Harris defeat Trump and become the first female president in US history to enter the White House?

Trump's unique governing style is well known to the world. Centered on the United States, always putting America first, and pursuing aggressive policies. He operates on the principle of transaction, but is unpredictable and doesn't follow the rules. To use a Chinese internet slang to describe it, he's like 'this American guy who doesn't follow the usual path.' Will the accident of the 58th U.S. history become the inevitability of the 60th?

A French trader has made a bold bet of $30 million on Trump, making headlines on the front page of The Wall Street Journal. If he wins, he can earn $80 million. This has definitely influenced the voters' sentiment. In addition, Musk, who has 200 million fans on the X platform, strongly supports Trump. His daily million-dollar lottery campaign for supporting Trump violates the lottery law and consumer protection law of Pennsylvania, and is facing a lawsuit... In the end, Trump pulled out two trump cards - 'Halving' the family energy tax and 'developing affordable housing' construction. Trump's team is good at creating momentum and marketing, worthy of being a businessman. With all this, it's hard to say that 'Mr. Know-it-all' has won for sure!

Harris performed poorly in a recent interview (CNN), especially with a Chinese flavor (doing Tai Chi, looking left and right when mentioning China), which may substantially affect his chances of being elected. Biden also made a slip of the tongue saying, 'the voters who voted for Trump are trash...', and Clinton said, 'the U.S. economy was relatively good during Trump's administration, but I...'. Although Harris is gentle and close to the people, she lacks seriousness and personal charm compared to Trump, without the so-called 'official authority' of the Chinese. If the two compete on the Chinese mainland, it can be said with certainty that 'Sister HaHa' has no chance and is purely a sparring partner.

In addition to having female voters, abortion rights, and legal transgender rights, the Democratic Party also has a trump card, which is illegal immigration. The Democratic Party transfers a large number of illegal immigrants to some swing states, and then enacts laws to grant legal status (obtaining US green cards) to batches of eligible illegal immigrants. This is also one of the reasons why Musk supports Trump in this year's US election. Musk stated at a Republican rally that he used to stay out of politics, but this time he supported the Republican Party because he does not want to see swing states become like California, leading to a single-party future in the United States.

However, simply obtaining a "green card" does not grant US citizenship or voting rights. Since illegal immigrants with green cards also do not have voting rights, onlookers cannot help but wonder: what is the purpose of the Democratic Party transferring a large number of illegal immigrants to some swing states? Do illegal immigrants hope for the Democratic Party to continue in power? Of course they do, because under Democratic rule, they may have the chance to obtain a "green card" or even become US citizens. Conversely, if Trump comes to power, they are highly likely to be deported. These people really hope for the Democratic Party to stay in power, but they still do not have voting rights. What can they do?

The answer is that although you do not have the right to vote, you can take a risk to vote, and there is a great probability that it will not be detected (to protect the voter, the United States has set up a way to "vote anonymously").
Highlight, how do you vote without US citizenship? For example, on election day, if you forget to bring your identification or your identification is damaged and you haven't had time to replace it, you can fill out a "Citizenship Affidavit" to declare yourself as a US citizen. In simple terms, you just need to make a sworn statement. Of course, swearing comes with consequences. If you are caught, you may face a maximum of 15 years in prison and deportation.

Under normal circumstances, no one would take such a big risk to "swear". However, think about it, for some illegal immigrants, they have nothing to lose, even if they go to jail in the United States, it's still better than being deported to their own country, right? For example, illegal immigrants from Ukraine, for them, it's better to go to jail in the United States than to be deported back to their country.

Now everyone knows why the Democratic Party wants to transfer a large number of illegal immigrants to swing states. In 2020, Trump lost to Biden in the election, and he still refuses to admit his failure, and this is the reason.

In summary, the 2024 US election is highly competitive, with multiple polls showing the two candidates neck and neck. A poll of seven swing states on October 31st showed Harris leading Trump by a slight margin, but 10% of voters may change their minds before the election. This crucial minority is torn between the need for a peaceful president and a billionaire president driven by extreme utilitarianism.

The onlookers are not afraid of big things, they just watch the excitement. I'll make a prediction too.

The Republican Party is against globalization and is responsible for the United States. I choose the understanding king.
The Democratic Party embraces globalization and takes responsibility for China. I choose haha.

From the level of friendliness towards the encryption industry, I hope Trump wins
From the perspective of global geopolitical order, I hope Harris wins

"Nine runs away from the fire, the central woman dominates." It will soon be verified whether this "I Ching Bagua · Nine Purple Fu Fire Run" is effective or not at the other end of the Earth. Haha~

Who do you think will be elected? Please write your answer in the comments section!

#特朗普 #哈里斯 #2024美国大选