Master the top signal of this bull market and withdraw in time to avoid being trapped!

1. Price
Generally speaking, during a bull run, the overall market rises by 2 times or more, and BTC rises by 2-3 times.
When BTCETH stays Sideways for a long time, and altcoins rise almost equally, we need to be particularly careful. At this point, the market has already significantly exceeded and overdrawn its future value, so we need to know when to stop.
2. on-chain volume
During a bull run, the on-chain volume usually expands significantly, with funds flowing frequently. However, it is worth noting that when the price reaches a new high and the on-chain volume starts to decline, it is an important signal of a market top.
For example, in the later stage of the 2021 Bull Market, although the on-chain volume surged in the short term, it gradually shrank afterwards, indicating that the market's willingness to get on board with funds began to weaken.
3. Leveraged and Borrowed Data
In the Decentralized Finance market, leverage and lending data are important indicators for judging market sentiment:
Surging demand for loans: Investors borrow stablecoins to buy large amounts of mainstream assets, indicating high market sentiment.
High liquidation risk: If the liquidation price of the majority of borrowed funds approaches the market price, it indicates that investors are overly optimistic and leverage risk increases.
Generally, a high leverage ratio can lead to a chain liquidation triggered by a slight market fluctuation, becoming the starting point for a bull market crash.
4. Add wallet number
In the later stage of the bull run, the number of Wallets will increase significantly, and many Newbies will get on board, especially when retail investors open a large number of Wallet Addresses, they need to be extra careful.
For example, the high point of the Bull Market in 2021, the active users of MetaMask once exceeded 10 million, and then the market quickly turned bearish.
5. Regulatory Policies
The crypto world is a policy-sensitive market, and regulatory developments often determine the market's direction.
China banned ICOs in 2017 and cleaned up Mining Farms in 2021, which directly led to the end of the Bull Market. Pay attention to global policy trends, such as the SEC's movements in the United States and China's Anti-Money Laundering policies.
6. Institutional Fund Movement
Institutional fund flows are an important indicator of the Bull Market, such as the BTC holdings of Grayscale and the net inflows and outflows of ETF funds. If institutional funds begin to reduce mainstream assets or switch to other areas, it indicates that the market has entered the late stage of the Bull Market.
At the end of the market, the inflow of funds will slow down, or even turn from inflow to outflow, that is, net selling. This also means that the market is about to end, which is an important reference indicator.
7. Market Cap and Valuation
In the bull run, the market capitalization and valuation of many currencies will deviate from the fundamentals.
For example, in 2021, DOGE's Market Cap once ranked among the top five, and the valuation of certain Non-fungible Token projects reached hundreds of millions of dollars. If similar bubble phenomenon occurs again, it indicates that the market has become overheated and may pullback at any time.
8. Market capitalization compared to the global economy
The crypto world can also be measured for bubbles using the "Buffett Indicator". When the total market value of the encryption market exceeds a certain threshold (such as 15% of global GDP), it means that the market valuation is too high.
For example, in 2021, the total market capitalization once surpassed $30 trillion, while the global GDP is about $85 trillion, accounting for approximately 3.5%, which is a rapid expansion and a risk signal.
9. Media Public Opinion
When mainstream media starts to hype up the 'endless bull market' and 'BTC to $1 million', caution is advised. Media hype is often a manifestation of overheated market sentiment and an important signal of a market top.
10. Significant pullback or oscillation
In a Bull Market, the price of the coin continues to rise, but if there is a big dump in a single day or a long period of sideways oscillation, it may be a sign of capital outflow.
For example, during the end of the Bull Market in 2017 and 2021, BTC experienced several major corrections, followed by the Bear Market.
11. The people around me are discussing
When your fren, colleagues, or even family members who have never dealt with Crypto Assets start discussing buying BTC or AltCoin, you need to be careful. The concentration of retail investors getting on board often signals the end of a Bull Market.
In 2017 and 2021, this phenomenon was very obvious, and in the end, the ones who dumb buying were these "belated" Newbie investors.