#January Market: Which Altcoins Are Worth Watching?

To determine whether the market maker is "shorting", it is necessary to take into account the current market structure, technical indicators, and the performance of volume. The following is a comprehensive analysis of the current BTC/USDT market and the possibility of shorting:
1. What is a short squeeze?
• **Short Selling Definition:** The market maker intentionally creates panic by causing a short-term decline, triggering retail investors to sell, in order to accumulate at a low level and prepare for subsequent upward movement.
• Characteristic performance:
1. Quickly broke through the key support level, but then quickly rebounded.
2. Volume anomalies, with increased volume during declines, but significantly increased volume during rebounds.
3. The technical indicators are bearish, but no trend break has formed.
2. Analysis of Current Market Structure
Technical chart observation
• Support level situation:
• 97,572.6: The current support level is close to being tested multiple times. If it holds, it may be a signal for the manipulator to absorb funds.
• 96,472.8: Sub-support level, breaking below this level may indicate a stronger bearish sentiment.
• Volume performance:
• When the recent decline occurred, the volume did not significantly increase, indicating a neutral and cautious market sentiment.
• There is no typical 'decline with high volume, rebound with low volume' characteristic.
• Indicator signal:
• MACD is in the bearish zone, but there is no significant increase in the decline.
• The KDJ indicator is hovering in the low area and there is a short-term demand for rebound.
3. Probability assessment of shorting
Based on big data experience and current market performance, the probability assessment of short-selling is as follows:
Possibility of short squeeze (about 60%):
• Reason:
1. Support effectiveness: If the support at 97,572.6 is repeatedly tested without being broken, it may be an attempt by the manipulator to absorb funds.
2. **Volume Change:** The current decline is accompanied by a decrease in volume, indicating that the main force may not have truly started selling.
3. **Technical Repair Demand:** KDJ and RSI indicators are hovering at low levels, providing technical rebound power.
4. **Market Logic:** The market maker may take advantage of the low panic sentiment to accumulate positions and prepare for subsequent rises.
Probability of real breakage (about 40%):
• Reason:
1. If the price falls below the support level of 96,472.8, accompanied by an increase in trading volume, it may not be a false break, but a real decline.
2. If the bearish momentum of MACD continues to expand, it indicates that the market has entered a bearish dominant stage.
4. Operation Suggestions
Short-term strategy
1. Low-suction probing:
• Condition: Price stabilizes around 97,572.6, and the trading volume does not significantly increase.
• Operation: Open a long position with a small position size, and target to 98,500.
• Stop loss: set below 97,300.
2. Breakthrough to chase more:
• Condition: Price stabilizes at 98,667.8 with accompanying volume.
• Operation: Chase long to 99,000-99,500.
• Stop loss: set below 98,300.
3. Break below to test short:
• Condition: Price falls below 96,472.8, accompanied by volume.
• Operation: Short target is set at 95,800.
• Stop loss: set above 96,800.
5. Risk Control
• **Position Management:** During the uncertain phase, strictly control the position to avoid chasing highs and killing lows.
• Pay attention to key points:
• 97,572.6: If repeatedly tested but not broken, it may be a bear trap.
• 96,472.8: If it directly falls below, be cautious of further bearish momentum.
Summary
Considering the current market performance, the possibility of a bear trap is relatively high, about 60%. It is recommended to closely observe the performance of the support at 97,572.6. If the support holds and is accompanied by signs of rebound, you can try to buy at a lower price; if it falls below with increased trading volume, be cautious of the possibility of a real decline. Operate cautiously and set strict stop-loss orders.