Last night, global markets were affected by a piece of news. The Washington Post reports that Trump's aides are considering universal import tariffs on certain industries, and that the Trump team is exploring a tariff plan that would apply to all countries but only cover key imports. If true, it would be very different from what he planned during the 2024 presidential campaign. First, the tariffs will be universal, i.e., targeted at all countries – a situation that was previously ruled out by all Wall Street investment banks, as sweeping tariffs could lead to full-scale retaliation, the most serious scenario for the economy; Second, it won't cover all goods, only around specific industries – seemingly trying to drop the impact of tariffs on inflation. To put it simply, this is a "downgraded" version of the tariff plan, which will not be as aggressive as Trump has previously advertised. As soon as the news was released, the U.S. dollar index fell by as much as 1% (a 1% decline in the Forex market is equivalent to a decline of more than 2% in the stock market), and U.S. stock futures also showed a big pump. However, Trump later denied the news. The U.S. dollar index pared its losses, while U.S. stock futures pared gains. Trump wrote on his Truth Social, "The Washington Post reported that the so-called anonymous sources (which don't actually exist) falsely claimed that my tariff policy would be scaled back." This is wrong. The Washington Post knew it was wrong. This is just another example of fake news. "1. Regardless of whether the Washington Post news is true or not, the strong feedback from the market indicates that the news about Trump is underprepared - the previous hype is superficial, and any disclosure of details in the future will cause an uproar. 2. Even after this news was clarified, the U.S. dollar index closed with a decline of 0.6%, which shows that the market still believes that Trump's tariff plan is "thunderous and rainy", and it also shows that the market is beginning to think about whether the dollar's rally is excessive. In any case, the dollar index came out of a meaningful move last night. 3. The U.S. stock market, which is highly followed by global investors, closed with mixed gains. The Dow Jones fell 0.04%, the S&P 500 pumped 0.55%, and the NASDAQ pumped 1.24%. The trend of U.S. stocks is mainly driven by technology stocks pump, and technology stocks are highly anticipated for today's CES speech by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. So today's keynote speech by Jensen Huang (10:30 GMT) will be a test of recent sentiment and risk appetite for tech stocks. If Nvidia shares fall in the coming days, it would signal that the U.S. stock market will stagnate throughout January. But if it pumps in the coming days, then the US stock market is expected to usher in the light again. 4. It is worth noting that the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is still above the 4.6% level, which makes traders uneasy.
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Last night, global markets were affected by a piece of news. The Washington Post reports that Trump's aides are considering universal import tariffs on certain industries, and that the Trump team is exploring a tariff plan that would apply to all countries but only cover key imports. If true, it would be very different from what he planned during the 2024 presidential campaign. First, the tariffs will be universal, i.e., targeted at all countries – a situation that was previously ruled out by all Wall Street investment banks, as sweeping tariffs could lead to full-scale retaliation, the most serious scenario for the economy; Second, it won't cover all goods, only around specific industries – seemingly trying to drop the impact of tariffs on inflation. To put it simply, this is a "downgraded" version of the tariff plan, which will not be as aggressive as Trump has previously advertised. As soon as the news was released, the U.S. dollar index fell by as much as 1% (a 1% decline in the Forex market is equivalent to a decline of more than 2% in the stock market), and U.S. stock futures also showed a big pump. However, Trump later denied the news. The U.S. dollar index pared its losses, while U.S. stock futures pared gains. Trump wrote on his Truth Social, "The Washington Post reported that the so-called anonymous sources (which don't actually exist) falsely claimed that my tariff policy would be scaled back." This is wrong. The Washington Post knew it was wrong. This is just another example of fake news. "1. Regardless of whether the Washington Post news is true or not, the strong feedback from the market indicates that the news about Trump is underprepared - the previous hype is superficial, and any disclosure of details in the future will cause an uproar. 2. Even after this news was clarified, the U.S. dollar index closed with a decline of 0.6%, which shows that the market still believes that Trump's tariff plan is "thunderous and rainy", and it also shows that the market is beginning to think about whether the dollar's rally is excessive. In any case, the dollar index came out of a meaningful move last night. 3. The U.S. stock market, which is highly followed by global investors, closed with mixed gains. The Dow Jones fell 0.04%, the S&P 500 pumped 0.55%, and the NASDAQ pumped 1.24%. The trend of U.S. stocks is mainly driven by technology stocks pump, and technology stocks are highly anticipated for today's CES speech by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. So today's keynote speech by Jensen Huang (10:30 GMT) will be a test of recent sentiment and risk appetite for tech stocks. If Nvidia shares fall in the coming days, it would signal that the U.S. stock market will stagnate throughout January. But if it pumps in the coming days, then the US stock market is expected to usher in the light again. 4. It is worth noting that the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is still above the 4.6% level, which makes traders uneasy.