The friends who have experienced 21 years should all know that 2021 is a 'big point shaving' year, especially the biggest easing since 2008. However, the macro background of this year is quite different from 2021, and it is still a high interest rate era, and the balance sheet reduction has not ended. What we expect is an expansion of the balance sheet, rather than a simple point shaving. Point shaving is usually an extraordinary measure taken after the interest rate drops to zero, but now the interest rate is still at 4.5%. Some celebrities predict that the balance sheet reduction may end in Q1 to Q2 this year, and the expansion of the balance sheet is not far away. Although there is no large-scale point shaving at the moment, there are ETFs and some friendly policies in the market, which have helped BTC break through the 100,000 mark smoothly. However, the liquidity of AltCoins has not kept up. Many friends may be caught in the illusion of a 'crazy bull market'. In fact, even in 2021, not all projects can easily double. The financial market always comes with the risk of being played for suckers, and even BTC is difficult to avoid. The projects that are sought after by funds often perform well in speculative narratives, and some can even achieve a hundredfold return. Therefore, choosing projects is a technical skill. From the metaverse and decentralized finance of 2021 to the current public chains, AI, and a few leaders, the market is constantly evolving.

Finally, predict the trend of Bitcoin market in the next six months:
In the next few days, Bitcoin is expected to rebound strongly in the range of 96000-98000. However, the market sentiment may turn negative again, possibly touching the downward trend line, or directly falling to the range of 86000-88000. In extreme cases, it may even fill the CME gap of 78,000, which is around the 16-18th. Before Trump took office, the market always seemed to be accompanied by violent fluctuations, smashing the gold pit and quickly rebounding.
2. After Trump took office, he signed a series of policies favorable to Bitcoin, such as promoting Bitcoin reserves, which gradually restored market sentiment. It is expected that by the end of February, the market will break through the downtrend line and return to the $100,000 mark.
3. Entering February 4th to 8th, the first quarter market started, and it may even break through $114,000. But after the middle and late February, there will be a pullback, and it may sharply rise in early March, challenging $140,000.
4. However, by mid-May, market sentiment became tense again, with concerns that a bear market was imminent. With the Fed's rate cut in early June, the market rebounded, surpassing $150,000 and forming the top of a bull market, and began to distribute, gradually revealing the shadow of a bear market.
The most important thing about the above deduction is not to be precise to the price point, but as retail investors, we need to understand the market's objective rhythm and the subjective intentions of the institutions: without sufficient fear, without sufficient consolidation and accumulation of strength, it is difficult to have a large-scale rise, and large-scale rises need to be distinguished from small-scale rebounds, deep retracements need to be distinguished from shallow pullbacks, to avoid always following the wrong rhythm, when it's time to bottom out, there are no bullets, when it's time to reduce positions, there are no chips or haven't made enough profit, in the end, others are more fearful than I am, others are greedy, I just need to make an extra $1 and leave.