Trump officially opens the era of encryption monetization, where assets are currency, individuals are currency, time is currency, and everything can be monetized. It's been a while since we talked about macro issues. Apart from gold, there are few safe-haven assets beyond the nation-state, and BTC is one of them. The market's expectations for Trump are currently somewhat confused. When Trump wins the election, Trump's trading will drive the US dollar, US stocks, and BTC to rise sharply. When Trump is officially inaugurated, the market is worried about the uncertainty of Trump's policies impacting asset prices.

Unlike his first term, Trump's attitude towards digital currency has undergone significant changes. Today, the traditional financial industry has embraced Bitcoin (BTC), and BTC spot trading represents its formal entry into the traditional financial "system." The Trump administration's lenient regulation of digital currency has alleviated the biggest risk for BTC and digital currencies.
Currently, there are very few safe-haven assets beyond the nation, except for gold and Bitcoin.
If conflicts between countries intensify, these two super-national safe-haven assets will further rise.
In the future, digital currency will become the lowest-cost way for personal financing. Trump recently launched his personal Meme coin TRUMP, which skyrocketed after its release, pushing its total market value to over 60 billion dollars. Not only that, his wife and family members are also issuing tokens. The era of monetization has officially begun, where assets are currency, individuals are currency, and time is currency. Everything can be monetized.
It is expected that this currency revolution will bring more substantial wealth effects than AI. However, this requires a market with tolerant regulation to achieve. Trump's return to office again indicates that many contradictions in this world are being exposed, many rules will be broken, and many opportunities are also emerging.
Everyone should remember that in the next four years, the US economy will be mainly determined by the economic cycle, and the main trading line is the macro main line, not economic policy.
The United States has emerged from the low growth, low inflation, and low interest rate trap since 2008 and is forming a new round of economic prosperity characterized by relatively high growth, inflation, and interest rates. This economic upturn is driven by the strong private balance sheets in the United States, abundant investment and consumer confidence, the wave of AI technology, and the investment rates in equipment and infrastructure, rather than by Trump's policies or under his influence.
On this macro theme, the relatively strong dollar, strong US stocks, and higher US bond yields are the basic characteristics of dollar assets. The market is worried that Trump's policies will raise inflation rates.
It is currently speculated that the policy of expelling 11 million illegal immigrants by Trump is actually difficult to implement, but he can block new illegal border crossers, which puts pressure on the tense labor force in the United States.
On the other hand, Trump is trying to reduce the fiscal budget and increase oil supply to lower the inflation rate.
Currently, inflation in the United States comes from multiple sources, including labor shortages, excessive fiscal spending, and tight oil supply.
Among them, the policy of expelling illegal immigrants may increase the core inflation stickiness, which is not conducive to the short-term decline in inflation, while increasing oil supply can reduce energy inflation, which is helpful for the long-term decline in inflation. Taken together, Trump's policies may increase inflation stickiness in the short term, thereby supporting a stronger dollar and higher interest rates.
It is still not easy to evaluate Trump's trade policy now. There is no plan for how the comprehensive tariff plan will be implemented, how much tariff will be added to China, and how it will be added.
After years of preparation, including industrial transfer, the impact of comprehensive tariff plans on global supply and domestic inflation may not be that significant.
The fiscal policy of the Trump administration is quite complex.
Tax reduction is one of the core policies of the Republican Party, and the Trump administration may lower the corporate income tax from 21% to 15%.
This significant tax reduction will help increase the activity of capital, improve market allocation efficiency and economic growth rate; at the same time, it may increase the government's fiscal deficit and debt burden in the short term.
However, Musk's Efficiency Commission is committed to reducing the budget, with the opportunity to cut $300-400 billion annually, excluding defense spending, welfare, interest, and administrative costs.
This can to some extent reduce the deficit pressure of the Trump administration. Infrastructure investment is a consensus of both parties and both houses.
The Biden administration has passed an infrastructure bill with an investment scale of $1.2 trillion. The infrastructure investment covers many traditional industries - supporters of the Republican Party. It is expected that the Trump administration will promote infrastructure investment to further attract more old Republicans.
This round of infrastructure investment and artificial intelligence equipment investment will drive US economic growth. The monetary policy of the Trump administration is controlled by the Federal Reserve and placed in a rate-cutting cycle.
Trump is trying to increase his influence on Fed decisions, but the Fed has a considerable degree of independence to protect its own decision-making.
Currently, the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts is more likely to be a reservation about the uncertainty of Trump's policies.
I believe that the magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cut in 2025 could reach 75 basis points, with a high probability of pushing the federal funds rate below 4%.
Based on the above judgment, I believe that during the next four years of Trump's term, the United States will be in a new round of economic cycle, and the policies of the Trump administration will not pose too much interference to it.
The US dollar, compared to the euro, pound sterling, and renminbi, maintains a strong position, with the US dollar index at around 100-105, which is currently the top. In 2025, due to the impact of the comprehensive tariff plan, the trend of the renminbi against the US dollar may be weak, although the US dollar index has also weakened.
Some speculate that Trump is trying to maintain a strong dollar to absorb global capital. However, Trump complains that current inflation and higher interest rates have weakened the dollar. If inflation is brought down, the dollar will certainly weaken as well.
In fact, Trump's influence on the trend of the US dollar is relatively small, far less than the Federal Reserve. The US stock market will continue to reach new highs, with industry, banking, retail, and technology leading the way. The market will gradually return to macroeconomics as the main trading theme.
Both the macro mainline and the monetary policy mainline contribute to the rise of US stocks. The relatively loose financial regulation of the Republican Party is conducive to the rise of US bank stocks.
In addition, traditional industries such as automobiles, steel, aviation, and retail services are early supporters of the Republican Party, and Trump's administration is also beneficial to the rise in related sectors.
US Treasury bonds have risen, but overall gains have been limited by the business cycle and equity assets. The 10-year US Treasury yield may fall to about 3.5%. It is a good opportunity to allocate US Treasury bonds now, as it can provide high returns.
On the other hand, throughout the entire interest rate reduction cycle, US bonds are likely to continue to rise.
In addition, based on the bullish judgment of US stocks, allocating US bonds serves as a risk hedge.
Gold, maintaining high levels, the business cycle suppresses the gold price, rate cuts and inflation are beneficial to the gold price, and the pricing logic of gold is changing. Central banks such as China continue to buy gold amid international geopolitical conflicts, so the gold price may remain strong.
Crude oil, at a moderate level, Trump's policy of supporting traditional energy will increase oil supply, which may push oil prices down, but the economic cycle will increase demand for oil. At the same time, inflation will help push oil prices up, plus the geopolitical trends in the Middle East and Russia, oil prices may remain at a moderate level.
Real estate, house prices in the core areas of international metropolises continue to rise, and the United States has long entered the post-real estate era. Most houses in most cities are consumer goods with no investment value. However, properties in the core areas of international metropolises remain important investment assets. This wave of high interest rates and AI has to some extent weakened the investment preference for real estate.
There's not much to say about BTC. The Trump administration has prioritized encryption currencies and established a strategic reserve for BTC. This policy support, coupled with the increase in liquidity brought about by the Fed's interest rate cuts, has greatly increased the attractiveness of BTC and other encryption currencies. By 2025, BTC is expected to continue to rise, and I still see it going above 180K. The purchasing behavior of institutions, companies, and countries will further drive up its price.
In short, Trump is lucky, and the cryptocurrency circle is not too bad.