Track real-time hotspots in the currency circle, seize the best trading opportunities. Today is January 28, 2025, Tuesday in the lunar calendar. I am Wang Yi Bo! Happy New Year's Eve to all my friends in the currency circle ☀ Iron fans check in 👍 Like and make a fortune 🍗🍗🌹🌹. It's New Year's Eve again, and I am grateful for your continuous support for Yi Bo. In the new year, I will not fail your trust and will use my expertise to navigate the trading market for you. Wishing you a smooth investment and abundant returns. Happy New Year's Eve, let's tread the snowy peak of the currency circle together with all my fren in 2025!

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Will Bitcoin usher in a wave of rising market during the Spring Festival? Yibo has sorted out the trend of Bitcoin during the past 10 Spring Festivals and found that Bitcoin has risen every time:
2024 (2/8~2/14): $44,349 to $52,043, an increase of 17.3%
2023 (1/20~1/29): $21,071 to $23,960, an increase of 13.7%
2022 (1/29~2/6): $37,716 to $42,656, an increase of 13.1%
2021 (2/10~2/16): $46,420 to $50,689, an increase of 9.2%
2020 (1/23~1/29): $8,682 to $9,449, a 8.8% increase.
2019 (2/2~2/10): $3,462 to $3,685, an increase of 6.4%
2018 (2/15~2/20): $9,449 to $11,786, a 24.7% increase.
2017 (1/27~2/1): $918 to $986, an increase of 7.4%
2016 (2/6~2/14): $374 to $404, an increase of 8%.
2015 (2/18~2/24): $234 to $238, an increase of 1.7%
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The Fed will announce the interest rate results at 3 a.m. this Thursday (January 30, 2025). Not cutting interest rates in January is in line with expectations, and the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 98.9%, which is basically a foregone conclusion. The negative expectation has been completely digested after December 18, so there will be no further decline when it is implemented. The key is to see if Powell's speech releases information about the expectation of rate cuts in March and beyond. As long as it is mentioned, there will be a short-term explosive rally, just in time for the Spring Festival market. However, there tends to be some volatility before and after the meeting results are implemented. It is reported that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March this year is currently 27.1%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in May is 38.4%. Some institutions believe that the rate cut this year may be delayed until after May, so the probability of a rate cut in March does not seem high at the moment, and there may be a period of pullback in mid-March. The expectation of a rate cut in May is relatively high, so there may be a preemptive rise in April to digest the positive expectation.
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Yesterday's strong downward trend of Bitcoin broke through the important 100,000 level, touching near 97,700 before showing signs of stabilization and rebound. It has now formed a V-shaped reversal, rising to 102,000 before pausing. From a technical perspective, the solid part of the daily chart has formed a downward pin shape, just at the upper edge of the downtrend channel. Although the big cake briefly broke a support during the daytime plunge yesterday, it did not reverse the position. Generally speaking, after the daily adjustment, there is still an opportunity for a new high, especially since last week's adjustment pattern did not show a reversal structure. Yesterday's short-term adjustment is expected to be in place, and the rebound at night, although not a strong V-reverse, shows a bottoming trend. After the upward movement at night, there may be some retracement during the day, with the retracement likely to occur from the afternoon to the evening. After the retracement, a new upward trend is expected to come! Just pay attention to whether the retracement can break through yesterday's low, which will affect the height of the next upward trend. Focus on the pressure platform at 103,500-105,000.
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The linkage between Ethereum and Bitcoin plummeted, testing the support level at 3010 and rebounding. It is currently around 3150, which is essentially another test of the important support level. As mentioned before, if the entity fails to stabilize above 3350, the oscillation range will definitely move downwards. Break through and chase in.