【XRP key support game: short-term rebound opportunities emerge? The latest strategy is fast!】

Technical analysis
1. Price status:
• Bollinger Band analysis: The current price (2.57) is close to the lower Bollinger Band (2.57), in an extremely tight range, showing an excessive selling pressure in the short term, but needs to break through the 2.585 level to confirm the uptrend.
• Analyze the MA200 position: Price is below MA200 (2.66) and -3.61% deviation, medium-term negative trend, need to recover MA200 to reverse the downturn.
• Analyze the holding cost position: The current price is lower than the average holding price (2.62), with a deviation of -1.92% indicating that most holders are in a loss position, which may lead to buying to protect the price.
2. Market strength weakness:
• Transaction volume analysis: The 24-hour trading volume has decreased significantly by 0.53x, the market is very positive.
• Price-volume relationship: The price decrease accompanied by continuously decreasing trading volume over the past 12 hours has exceeded 200 million, indicating the characteristics of weakness and declining factors.
• Capital flows: Large net cash outflows of (30 on the day - 1.54 billion), simultaneous capital outflows in the derivatives market of (7 on the day - 1.03 billion), significant financial pressure.
• High liquidity ratio: The buy/sell ratio increased by 4.13% in 24 hours to 1.93, but the opening volume decreased by 1.06%, indicating that investors are officially cautious in trying to buy but have not yet reached a consensus.
3. Support and Resistance Key Points:
• Support level: 2.50 psychological threshold + extremely dense trading area in history(, 2.43 lower support level + current commodity trading area peak).
• Resistance level: 2.60 (Bollinger + MA5), 2.718 (former high platform + trading volume).
• Distribution of trading volume: The largest value of the collateral amount is concentrated in the range of 0.417-0.707 (, accounting for 30.58%), above the current price is around 2.718-3.292 with a remaining 60 billion dollars, requiring a large volume to coordinate surpassing.
4. Permanent contract structure:
• Number of deposits: The number of deposits in the past 24 hours decreased by 1.06% and the volume of futures trading plummeted by 94.54%, causing a sudden market decline.
• The tug of war game: Smart money increases in the short term by +0.15%( but continues to decrease in the long term by -6.44%), reflecting institutional doubts about the trend's sustainability.
Market cycle analysis
1. Current cycle:
• In the final stage of the bear market transitioning to a volatile phase, the Bollinger Bands contract extremely tightly (only 1.2% width) forecasting upcoming changes.
• The Bollinger Band is currently forming a "resting corridor", the price has tested the lower line continuously for three days without breaking, indicating a technical rebound demand.
2. Transition point:
• Conversion to: Surpassing 2.60 and standing firm above the MA200 (2.66), accompanied by a trading volume increase of 0.8x or more.
• Downward path: When the price falls below 2.50, it may open up room for a decline to 2.43, triggering stop-loss selling pressure.
3. Trend Continuity:
• The current weak correction trend is likely to continue, but the super sell-off index (RSI is close to the 30) limit, restricting the downside space.
• To reverse the trend, the following needs to be met: ① Close above 2.66 daily ② Primary collateral volume increase by 3%+ ③ Positive commodity cash flow.
Proposed transaction
1. Short-term forecast:
• Price range 1-3 days: 2.50-2.66, with resistance at 2.60 during the day or test.
2. Trading strategy:
• Entry point: 2.53-2.55 (buy at 1% below the current price, play the technical counterattack game).
• Stop: 2.48 ( below the previous low ).
• Target: 2.63 (Profit 3% below MA200).
3. Risk Warning:
Market risk: SEC lawsuit developments, taking advantage of good news to sell dominant products, negative contract capital fee ratio reduces buying enthusiasm.
• Transaction warning: Avoid using leverage more than 3 times, pay attention to the collateral fluctuation every 2 hours.
• Proposed position: Do not exceed a total position of 5%, if reduced below 2.52 then immediately reduce the position by half.
Stop
XRP is currently in a bidding phase above the key support level, technically oversold but financially weak. It is recommended that short-term investors try a light level around 2.53-2.55, set a tight stop loss at 2.48, with a short-term profit target of 2.63. Medium and long-term investors should wait for a breakthrough at 2.66 before pursuing, being cautious of the risk of information manipulation by leaders. The current market liquidity is insufficient, and there is a need to guard against sudden sharp declines.
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