This evening at 20:30 local time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February in the USA will be published, which will be the main event in the financial markets. Market participants closely monitor this data as it plays a key role in indicating the direction of the Fed's policy. According to current market expectations, there is a possibility that inflation data will be slightly above expectations. If confirmed, the Fed will likely postpone plans to lower rates. Even if inflation data meets expectations or falls below, the Fed is likely to delay rate cuts until the second half of the year. According to the probability forecast of the FOMC Interest Rate, the possibility of rate cuts in March is completely ruled out. Currently, the probability of rate cuts in May is 45%, and in June - as much as 93%. This clearly shows that the market has reached a certain agreement that the Fed will not act recklessly in the near future, and the time for rate cuts will likely be postponed until the middle of the year. In case of good CPI data this week and successful resolution of financial issues by March 15, the probability of rate cuts in May may further increase. In the context of the recent significant decline in the stock market, market sentiment is in a depressive state, and investors are eagerly waiting for opportunities to rebound to alleviate the pessimistic mood in the market. Personally, I believe that if the CPI data reaches 2.9%, it will be a fairly ideal result and may lead to a rebound. Ultimately, after the recent prolonged market decline, a positive signal is needed to restore confidence. I sincerely hope that this data will bring some positive changes and breathe new life into the market.

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