Since the second half of 2024, BTC once surged to near $110,000, hitting a historical high. Currently, although it has pulled back around 30% from the peak, many analysts also consider it a 'normal pullback in the Bull Market'.

However, Ki Young Ju, CEO of the blockchain data platform CryptoQuant, expressed a pessimistic view. In a post this morning (3/18), he pointed out that the BTC bull run cycle has ended and is expected to usher in a bear market or sideways trend for six to twelve months, for the following reasons:
"Every on-chain indicator is showing bearish signals, with new whales selling BTC at lower prices as new liquidity dries up." He stated that early warnings have been sent to CryptoQuant subscribers, using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to process on-chain indicators such as MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL, calculating a 365-day moving average to identify turning points in the trend of the annual average line.
In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has seen a slight rebound as the US stock market bounces back, with not only BTC ($BTC) briefly breaking through $84,000, but also Ether ($ETH) reclaiming the $1,950 mark.
Coinb: May bottom out in the coming weeks and hit a new high later this year
Compared to Ki Young Ju's pessimistic view, other analysts are cautiously optimistic. Cb's research director David Duong said that the market generally expects the Fed to maintain its decision to pause rate cuts this week, but investors should pay attention to possible changes in the Fed's balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) plan, as bank reserve levels are close to 10-11% of GDP, which is usually considered sufficient to maintain financial stability.
Duong believes that the recent cryptocurrency market sell-off is mainly due to investors' concerns about the deterioration of the overall economy and liquidity conditions, which may improve in the next quarter and provide impetus for the market to rise.
He predicted that the cryptocurrency market may bottom out in the next few weeks and then rebound to new highs later this year.
The US dollar index continues to decline, why is the reaction of cryptocurrencies not significant?
Since March 2, the US dollar has weakened against a basket of foreign currencies. However, BTC also dropped by about 12% from around $94,000, causing confusion among investors, as BTC has often exhibited opposite trends to the US dollar in the past. Marcel Pechman, a senior analyst at Cointelegraph, stated that this is due to the positive impact of a weaker US dollar on BTC, which may take six months or even several years to materialize.
The overall economic and liquidity conditions will affect the direction of the cryptocurrency market.
LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger said that the current trend of the S&P 500 is not very optimistic, suggesting that US stocks may continue to pull back, which will affect the cryptocurrency market.
He predicts that BTC may pullback to between $73,000-74,000, the peak in March 2024.
Cryptocurrency analyst @21_XBT attributes BTC's recent poor performance to 'short-term overall economic panic,' including tariffs, DOGE (US Government Efficiency Department), yen arbitrage trading, yields, US dollar index, economic growth panic, etc., but BTC's long-term fundamentals will not change.
Long term, the current market panic about the overall economy will gradually fade, and central banks around the world may adopt a looser monetary policy to stimulate the economy. At that time, BTC will decouple from the US dollar index, laying the foundation for setting a new high price.