The IMF incorporates Bitcoin into the balance of payments: a power restructuring and market changes behind a statistical revolution!

On March 20, 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the seventh edition of the Balance of Payments Manual (BPM7), which appeared to be a technical update, but in fact marked the Normandy landing in the cryptocurrency space - a statistical revolution that not only redefined Bitcoin's global status, but also quietly rewrote the underlying rules of capital flows.

1. Identity verification: The core logic behind the IMF's inclusion of cryptocurrencies in the balance of payments for the first time is to use whether liabilities are assumed as the standard, categorizing digital assets into three types:

The Goldification of Bitcoin: Sovereign-backed cryptocurrencies (like BTC) are classified as non-productive non-financial assets, alongside gold and art, on national balance sheets. This means that if central banks hold Bitcoin, they must periodically disclose market value fluctuations, just as they manage their gold reserves.

The financial instrumentization of stablecoins: Stablecoins like USDT and USDC, which are backed by liabilities, are categorized into financial accounts alongside stocks and bonds, and may face audit requirements similar to those of traditional financial institutions in the future.

The equity-like attributes of public chain tokens: If platform tokens such as ETH and SOL are held cross-border, their staking rewards may be defined as initial income (similar to overseas dividends of multinational companies), and may even affect a country's international investment income data.

This classification seems neutral, but it actually implies the strategic intentions of the United States regarding crypto assets. The Bitcoin national fund promoted by the Trump administration and the geographical attribute of the IMF headquarters located in Washington suggest that the United States is attempting to incorporate crypto assets into its financial hegemony system through rule-making authority.

2. Statistical Rule Reconstruction: BPM7 has designed a brand new statistical formula for cryptocurrencies, directly impacting the calculation logic of traditional economic data:

Mining as a service export: Chinese miners providing computing power for American enterprises will be counted as computer service exports, enhancing China's service trade surplus.

Staking income = overseas dividends: The income earned by Japanese investors through staking ETH will be included in the country's "primary income account" and will be reported alongside the profits from Toyota's factory in the United States.

Bitcoin cross-border transactions = capital transfer: Users in China and the United States trading BTC need to be accounted for under other investments - non-financial assets category, cross-border capital flow regulation will henceforth cover on-chain transactions.

National Reserve Transparency: Bitcoin held by central banks of various countries must be included at market value in the International Investment Position (IIP), and cryptocurrencies are officially upgraded to a sovereign asset allocation option.

Impact assessment: This transformation will accelerate sovereign states' allocation of Bitcoin (as the United States has incorporated it into its strategic reserves), but it may also exacerbate market volatility - the IMF requires statistics based on the market price at the moment of the transaction, while Bitcoin's daily fluctuations exceeding 10% are common and may distort the authenticity of the balance of payments.

3. The end of regulatory arbitrage and the sovereign shadow war; after the implementation of IMF rules, the global financial power structure faces reshaping:

Regulatory arbitrage space is being compressed: Countries need to establish a reporting system for crypto assets by 2029, and exchanges and wallet providers must submit trading data to statistical departments. Anonymous coins and DeFi protocols may face data encirclement.

Real-time monitoring of capital flows: By tracking on-chain addresses, the Federal Reserve can monitor capital outflows through cryptocurrency channels, while emerging market countries gain a new weapon to control exchange rate fluctuations.

The focus of the contradiction: The EU is intensifying its scrutiny of exchanges' anti-money laundering measures, while the IMF is demanding that they open user data. This compliance dilemma may force companies to choose sides—either abandon privacy protection or exit the mainstream market.

4. Despite the IMF's efforts to integrate on-chain economics with BPM7, three major contradictions still exist:

Volatility Trap: The severe fluctuations in Bitcoin's market capitalization may distort national balance sheets, especially amplifying statistical errors during financial crises.

DeFi Data Fog: On-chain lending and privacy coin trading are difficult to penetrate, with statistical errors potentially exceeding one trillion dollars, undermining the reliability of policy making.

The IMF plans to promote on-chain data connectivity to national statistical systems before 2030, but the decentralized nature of Bitcoin will continue to conflict with the centralized demands of regulation.

5. The IMF's incorporation marks the upgrade of cryptocurrency from a toy of the cypherpunks to a global economic infrastructure, but this process is fraught with tension:

CBDC VS Bitcoin: Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is classified as legal tender, forming a confrontation between regular forces and guerrilla forces against Bitcoin.

Every DeFi loan may enter the international balance of payments account, and the data war between on-chain economies and sovereign nations will intensify.

Geopolitical Financial Weaponization: The Trump administration included Bitcoin in its strategic reserves, transforming cryptocurrency from a decentralized ideal into a tool for major power competition.

The IMF's rules have opened the door to the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies while also placing regulatory shackles on them. In the short term, the entry of sovereign nations may drive up Bitcoin prices (especially in resonance with the 2026 halving cycle and the global debt crisis); in the long term, the contradiction between the transparency of on-chain economies and the decentralized nature will continue to intensify.

In the future, those who can both master the rules and retain the spirit of cryptocurrency in the technology and capital complex may become the true winners.

‍#IMF #加密货币 #地缘金融