As of March 28, 2025, the Bitcoin price has recently shown a volatile trend. Currently, the market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors:

1. **Short-term Pullback Risk**: Technical indicators show that short-term momentum is weak, with MACD and moving averages suggesting a possible further pullback to the support level of $84,500. Additionally, significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs recently (with a net outflow of $2.61 billion last week) reflect investors' cautious sentiment towards short-term volatility.
2. **Long-term Bullish Logic**: The halving cycle effect is still being watched by the market, and historical patterns show that a peak may be reached approximately a year after the halving. Institutions like Standard Chartered predict that Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 in 2025, and on-chain indicators such as MVRV Z-Score and PiCycle Oscillator also support the upside potential.
3. **Macroeconomic and Policy Impacts**: The Federal Reserve's shift towards hawkish monetary policy increases uncertainty, but the cryptocurrency-friendly policies promoted by the Trump administration (such as regulatory easing) may become a long-term positive factor.
In summary, Bitcoin needs to pay attention to technical support levels and capital flows in the short term, while in the long term it is still supported by the halving cycle, institutional holdings (such as Michael Saylor achieving $2.6 billion in profits this year) and policy dividends.