# 非农

🌙 Tonight the market is in a very delicate position, on one side is the uncertainty brought by the potential U.S. government shutdown, and on the other side is the oversold rebound opportunity that has emerged in the crypto market after consecutive falls. It's like a tug-of-war, with macro concerns and technical repairs struggling against each other.
The core dynamics to pay attention to tonight are summarized below.
🗳️ Government Shutdown
If the US government really shuts down on October 1, it will not just be news for the market; it will bring some tangible effects.
Historical experien

Tonight's non-farm payrolls have already pushed the market sentiment to the limit.
The current consensus is:
Unemployment rate at 4.4%, non-farm job gains around 50,000.
But the real danger isn't in the numbers themselves, but in—liquidity is too poor.
Once the data clearly signals a negative surprise, in this environment of insufficient depth and full leverage, BTC is likely not just "a correction," but a direct stall and plunge.
The most ideal scenario is actually just one: neither good nor bad news.
What’s more exciting is that tonight not only releases November data but also makes up for O

Tonight at 9:30, the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data that has been postponed for a long time will finally be released.
It feels like the market is about to fall asleep... This data is quite critical, directly related to whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next. The current situation is: if the employment data is not very good, the market is likely to think that a rate cut is possible, which might lead to a surge in Bitcoin. If the data is particularly good, then high interest rates might continue, and the crypto market may have to keep fluctuating. I've just set my alarm cl

Tonight at 22:00, the initial value of the US non-farm payroll Benchmark change will be announced (previous value -598,000)! If the employment momentum is falsified, the Fed will have room to cut interest rates, and the market will experience significant turbulence. Pay close attention to the data before making directional decisions! #非农

8:30 PM, the big non-farm payroll and the grand beautiful bill are coming in double!
Tonight is destined to be an emotionally charged night!
The previous non-farm value is 13.9, the forecast value is 11.
The small non-farm data has提前"放炮": published value -3.3, extremely rare!
There have been very few instances of negative numbers in the history of non-farm payrolls, as I recall, no more than three times.
If tonight's non-farm payroll figure is negative, then basically go long with your eyes closed!
But don't rush in blindly, let's break it down according to the data logic:
Announced value >15: