The Negotiation Table Breaks Down, Battlefield Fire Continues — US-Iran Talks End in Failure, Middle East Situation Adds New Variables
On April 12, at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan, the highly watched US-Iran negotiations drew to a close after about 21 hours—ending not with a period, but with a huge question mark. At a press conference, US Vice President Vance announced that the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement, and the US delegation would return to the United States. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s death toll had already exceeded 2,000, the Strait of Hormuz remains under strict control at the point of an Iranian gun, and the Houthis have issued new threats toward the Red Sea. After a negotiation that had no winner ended, the suspense in the Middle East was only just beginning.
1. 21 Hours of Gaming: US-Iran Talks Break Down
On the morning of April 12, local time, US Vice President Vance held a press conference at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad and announced the final outcome of the negotiations. Vance said that after about 21 hours of talks, the US and Iran still had not reached an agreement. Both sides carried out multiple rounds of “substantive discussions,” but in the end produced no results. The US side had clearly put forward its own “red lines” and the conditions it found acceptable and unacceptable, while Iran “chose not to accept these terms.”
Vance said plainly: “We have now conducted 21 hours (of negotiations), and we’ve had multiple substantive discussions with the Iranians. This is good news. The bad news is that we did not reach an agreement. I think this is worse news for Iran than it is for the United States. We will return to the United States without an agreement.”
The US side’s core demands never wavered. Vance pointed out that the US requires Iran not only to not develop nuclear weapons now, but also to commit in the long term to not obtain the relevant capabilities and technologies; however, “we have not yet seen such a clear willingness.” He emphasized that this goal is the central demand of US President Trump in the negotiations.
Vance also revealed that during the roughly 21-hour negotiation process, the US maintained “continuous communication” with President Trump and the national security team, and had already presented Iran with a final package, waiting for the other side to respond. During the negotiations, Trump himself said that talks between the US and Iran might result in an agreement, or might not—but for him, “there’s no difference.”
However, Iran’s narrative was completely different. During a phone call with French President Macron, Iranian President Pezeshkian said that Iran had seriously participated in the Islamabad talks, and whether the negotiations would succeed depended on the US. An Iranian source also said that because the US made excessive demands during the negotiations, the talks did not make substantive progress, and there were still serious disagreements between the two sides over the right of passage through the Strait of Hormuz and other key issues.
Iran’s tough stance ran throughout. During the negotiations, Baghae, a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that Iran’s Parliament Speaker Kalibaf and Foreign Minister Aragzi had clearly conveyed to the Pakistani side all of Iran’s considerations, views, and demands based on the “ten-point plan,” including establishing jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz, having the “aggressor” pay the full amount of war reparations, unfreezing Iranian frozen assets unconditionally, and achieving a ceasefire within all geographic areas of the “resistance front.” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Lavanch previously confirmed that all parties had agreed to use Iran’s “ten-point plan” as the basis for negotiations—the plan includes core terms such as a mutual non-aggression treaty, recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, and acceptance of Iran’s uranium enrichment activities.
Subsequently, the Iranian government said on social media that “although there are still some differences, the negotiations will continue.” But Vance’s statement has already shown that at least for now, the US does not intend to stay at the negotiating table.
2. Vance’s “Thanks” and Trump’s “Not Much Concern”
At the press conference, Vance thanked Pakistan for its mediation, saying that it “did an excellent job,” and that it indeed worked to help bridge differences between the US and Iran and reach an agreement. He also emphasized that the failure to achieve results in the negotiations was not due to Pakistan.
At an interview at the White House, Trump said that the talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad might lead to an agreement, or they might fail—but for him, “there’s no real difference.” This statement sends a rather thought-provoking signal: in Trump’s view, the diplomatic game at the negotiating table does not seem to be that important—what matters is whether the Strait of Hormuz is ultimately opened, whether Iran’s nuclear program is restrained, and clearly Trump does not plan to rely entirely on negotiations to resolve these matters.
At the same time, Iran’s top leader Mujtaba Khamenei had earlier put forward a written “three-point proposal”: aggressors must compensate for losses; management of the Strait of Hormuz will enter a new stage; Iran will never give up its legitimate rights, and will treat all “resistance front” forces in this region as a whole. This position never changed throughout the negotiations.
3. Artillery Fire Beyond the Negotiation Table: Lebanon Death Toll Breaks 2,000
While US and Iranian representatives debated terms inside the Islamabad meeting room, Lebanon’s war fires were still burning.
According to data released by Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health on April 11, since hostilities between Lebanon and Israel reignited on March 2, Israeli attacks on Lebanon have caused 2,020 deaths and 6,436 injuries. Just in the large-scale airstrikes carried out by Israel on April 8 alone, at least 357 people were killed and 1,223 injured, and because debris was still being cleared, the actual death toll had not yet been finalized.
Even more heartbreaking is that since the announcement of a ceasefire between the US and Iran until the morning of April 12, Israeli airstrikes lasting only 10 minutes had killed at least 300 civilians, including 120 children and 80 elderly people; a total of over 420 homes had been destroyed, and 3 hospitals and 27 health clinics had been shut down completely due to the bombings. Jinwu Data reported on April 12 that on Saturday, a series of Israeli airstrikes on five towns in southern Lebanon caused another 19 deaths.
Lebanon’s humanitarian crisis continues to worsen. More than 1 million Lebanese have lost their homes due to airstrikes by the Israeli forces, including more than 130,000 people placed in government-designated shelters. The Lebanese government has repeatedly called on the international community to step in, but Israel’s military actions are still ongoing. The Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors to the US had originally been scheduled to hold their first meeting at the US Department of State on April 14 to discuss a ceasefire, but Israel clearly stated that it would refuse to discuss a ceasefire with Hezbollah of Lebanon—and Hezbollah is the actual belligerent in this war.
4. Strait of Hormuz: Passage Under the Barrel of a Gun
As news of the negotiations’ breakdown spread, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remained tense.
According to a report by Iran’s Fars News Agency on April 11, data from the ship-tracking website “Maritime Traffic” shows that vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz is currently still extremely limited, and all transiting ships pass under direct monitoring by Iran. The Tasnim News Agency of Iran reported the same day that in the Islamabad talks, the US obstructed agreement on the negotiation framework with what it called “the usual exorbitant bargaining tactics,” and the Strait of Hormuz is one of the core issues where serious differences exist between the two sides.
The UK’s Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Iran refused to accept the US proposal for “joint control” of the Strait of Hormuz, insisting on retaining control over this key waterway, saying it has the right to charge “tolls” to ships passing through. Earlier reports said that Iran wanted to charge $1 per barrel, with payment only possible in cryptocurrency or RMB—this demand was strongly opposed by Trump.
Although Vance did not directly mention the Strait issue at the press conference, he emphasized that the US “very clearly spelled out its ‘red lines,’” making it clear on which issues it was willing to make concessions and on which issues it would not. Clearly, control over the Strait of Hormuz belongs to the latter.
Data shows that there are still hundreds of vessels trapped inside the Persian Gulf, including more than 400 oil tankers. Shipping companies generally take alternative routes that bypass the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transportation costs by about 25%. The restoration of the global energy supply chain is a long way off.
5. Threats From the Houthis: The Red Sea May Become a Second Front
With the breakdown of US-Iran talks and Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon, Yemen’s Houthi threat is shifting from “warnings” to “reality.”
Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi had previously made it clear that Israel’s continued aggression in Lebanon could lead to a full-scale restart of hostilities, and said that it had “completely and finally prevented Israel and the US from using the Red Sea for hostile military purposes.” The Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea previously claimed that within the past 24 hours, the Houthis used missiles and drones for the third time to attack the US aircraft carrier “USS Harry S. Truman” and other “enemy warships” located in the Red Sea.
The Houthi threat is directly linked to the situation in Lebanon. Analysts point out that the Houthis are tying their military operations in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the fate of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Once the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is blocked, and combined with the Strait of Hormuz still being under strict control, the global energy supply chain will face dual pressure from both the east and the west.
The Red Sea route accounts for about 12% of global trade transportation volume. Some shipping companies have already chosen to bypass the Cape of Good Hope due to security risks, increasing the voyage time by about 15 to 20 days and multiplying insurance costs by several times compared with normal. If the situation deteriorates further, the global supply chain will face even greater pressure.
6. The Bill for War: More Than 4,400 Lives
No matter what agreement is ultimately reached at the negotiating table, the cost already paid by this war cannot be undone.
Data released by the World Health Organization on April 9 shows that since February 28, the large-scale military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have resulted in nearly 2,400 deaths in Iran and more than 32,000 injuries, with another 3.2 million people displaced. US and Israeli military actions have also led to more than 1,700 deaths in Lebanon, nearly 6,000 injuries, and more than 1 million Lebanese losing their homes. Adding Israel’s 24 deaths and over 7,000 injuries, this conflict has caused more than 4,400 people to die and more than 45,000 to be injured, with more than 4.2 million people displaced.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Türk previously said that the US and Israel are increasingly striking densely populated residential areas in Iran and trying to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure. Among them, attacks targeting nuclear facilities were described as “an utterly irrationally reckless act.”
7. Future Uncertainty
After the negotiations broke down, the future direction of the Middle East is full of uncertainty.
The US delegation will return to the United States, and whether Trump will take the next step in military action remains the biggest suspense. Iran has said “the negotiations will continue,” but Vance’s statement indicates that at least for now, the US does not plan to return to the negotiating table.
Israel’s military operations against Lebanon are still ongoing, and the outlook for the Lebanon-Israel talks scheduled to be held in Washington on April 14 remains unclear. Iran insists on including a ceasefire in Lebanon in the negotiation framework, while the US says a ceasefire “does not include Lebanon.” This fundamental disagreement was not resolved in the Islamabad negotiations, and may not be able to be bridged in the future.
The Strait of Hormuz remains under strict Iranian control, with hundreds of vessels still trapped inside the Persian Gulf. Restoring shipping to pre-war levels may take months.
The threat from the Houthis toward the Red Sea continues to escalate. If the fighting in Lebanon continues to expand, the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may become the next “powder keg” in the Middle East.
Conclusion: 21 Hours of Negotiations Could Not Bridge the Decades-Long Gap Between the US and Iran. Vance said “this is bad news for Iran,” while Iran said “whether the talks succeed depends on the US”—between these two narratives lies the width of the Strait of Hormuz. And beyond the negotiating table, beneath the rubble in Lebanon, new bodies are still being dug out; in the Persian Gulf, ships still wait for clearance to pass; and US aircraft carriers in the Red Sea are still facing the missile threat from the Houthis. This war has no winners, but there have been too many losers already. The breakdown of talks is not the end—it is the starting point for a new round of games.
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