Bitcoin is expected to rise significantly, but it's unlikely in the short term. Currently, it's more suitable to short on rebounds rather than wait for a rally. 1. Interest rate cuts in March and April: Basically unlikely Probability of rate cut in March: ≈6%; in April: ≈19% Non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations and persistent high inflation suggest the earliest rate cut window is June–July. Rate cuts in March–April are unlikely, and there is no significant liquidity injection in the short term. 2. Cryptocurrency legislation: Positive but distant water, not quenching immediate thirst USA: Framework has consensus, but implementation will take time; strong positive effects are unlikely in the short term. China: Eight departments reaffirm strict regulation and ban trading, which is negative for short-term sentiment. Legislation is a long-term positive; it cannot support a big rally in the short term. Bitcoin is expected to rise significantly, but it's unlikely in the short term. Currently, it's more suitable to short on rebounds rather than wait for a rally. 1. Interest rate cuts in March and April: Basically unlikely Probability of rate cut in March: ≈6%; in April: ≈19% Non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations and persistent high inflation suggest the earliest rate cut window is June–July. Rate cuts in March–April are unlikely, and there is no significant liquidity injection in the short term. 2. Cryptocurrency legislation: Positive but distant water, not quenching immediate thirst USA: Framework has consensus, but implementation will take time; strong positive effects are unlikely in the short term. China: Eight departments reaffirm strict regulation and ban trading, which is negative for short-term sentiment. Legislation is a long-term positive; it cannot support a big rally.

#GateSquare$50KRedPacketGiveaway 【$BTC Signal】Hold cash and wait — wait for key support confirmation $BTC entered a weak consolidation after breaking below EMA20, with prices hovering near a critical liquidity zone, intensifying the bulls and bears battle. 🎯 Direction: Hold cash Market analysis: The 4H chart shows prices oscillating between 65,000 and 67,000. The latest candlestick indicates weak buying pressure (buy/sell ratio 0.54). Depth imbalance reaches 22.6%, and the bid/ask ratio (1.58) suggests institutional support below, but the price has not effectively reclaimed above EMA20 (67,391), indicating insufficient bullish momentum. Core logic: RSI (39.8) is in the weak zone but not oversold, ATR (1364) shows volatility remains high. Open interest (OI) remains stable, funding rate is slightly positive (0.0007%), with no typical signals of short squeeze or main force distribution (OI decreasing + high funding rate). Contradiction: The daily trend is downward (daily highs decreasing), but on the 4H chart, a potential double bottom pattern is forming above the previous low of 65,177. The current price (66,178) is close to the deep buy order cluster, but the EMA20 above forms a strong resistance. Market logic suggests “price decline,” but data does not support a continuation of a one-sided trend. Trading plan: Wait for price action to give a clear direction. Long positions require a volume breakout and stabilization above 67,390 (EMA20) to confirm trend reversal. Short positions require a valid break below the key support of 65,177, with OI starting to decline. Currently, neither condition is met, making this a low-probability chaotic zone. Strictly adhere to risk management — hold cash and wait. Trade here 👇 $BTC --- Follow me: Get more real-time analysis and insights on the crypto market! $BTC $ETH $SOL ‍#我在Gate广场过新年 #Gate广场发帖领五万美金红包

that's bitcoin 15min chart maybe we see rejection from the trend line or if that not happen then up there we have strong resistance level also for the continuation of bearish trend what you think let me know in the comments 😉 #CPIDataAhead #GateSquare$50KRedPacketGiveaway