After Bitcoin completed its halving in 2016, it took about 525 days to reach its price peak; after the halving in 2020, it took approximately 546 days to climb to its highest point. As of now, after the halving in 2024, it seems to have approached its price peak in just about 280 days. There is a prevailing view in the current market that with the increasing number of Bitcoin halvings, the impact of each halving on the market will gradually diminish. This phenomenon is similar to the changes in functions in calculus, where values decrease progressively from large to small, until the impact becomes negligible. However, this is more of a long-term trend prediction for the future; regarding the current market situation, we have not yet reached this extent. Therefore, the fact that it touched the price peak in less than 300 days after the halving clearly does not conform to the conventional logic of market development. Thus, we might infer that in the future Bitcoin market, the cycles of bull and bear transitions may no longer follow the previous pattern of every 4 years; the once deeply ingrained market perception of "halving equals bull run" will gradually become blurred. The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks will become increasingly tight, and its market performance is likely to be significantly influenced by fluctuations in U.S. stocks, during which there may also be some small-scale bear market conditions. But will these bear markets evolve into deep bear markets? The greater possibility is that they are merely seemingly perilous bear traps.

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Special note! tonight 20:30,漂亮国至 3 月 15 日当周初请失业金人数这一关键数据即将重磅发布。 该数据的前值为 22 万,市场普遍预期本次将达到 22.4 万。 这项数据在经济领域的重要性评级高达★★★★☆,长期以来一直是衡量经济形势的核心风向标。 其任何细微的变化,都可能引发一系列连锁反应,对整个金融市场的各个层面产生广泛而深远的影响。 投资者们早已严阵以待,纷纷对这次数据的公布值展开猜测,究竟会带来超出预期的惊喜,还是引发市场的意外波动,着实令人拭目待。 今日凌晨,美联储副主席鲍威尔召开会议后,比特币价格从 8.35 万美元一线迅速反弹至 8.75 万美元。 今日比特币整体处于高位调整状态,目前价格承压后退,正在试探 8.5 万美元关口,这一位置是近期极为关键的支撑与阻力转换点。 从小时线走势分析,比te 币价格仍存在继续下探的可能性,下方重点关注 BOLL 下轨在 8.45 万美元附近的支撑强度。 那幺,tonight初请失业金数据公布后,bit币市场是否会迎来如何样全新的局面? 让我们同期待市场给出答案。