مقتنو البيتكوين يتألمون — إليك سبب كون ذلك إيجابيًا

• Over 28% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is held at a loss, a level that could mark a local market bottom.
• On-chain data shows signs of seller exhaustion, with Net Taker Volume at extreme lows.
• Analysts see $92,000 as a likely floor and $125,000–$130,000 as year-end targets if BTC holds key support levels.

Approximately 1/3 of Bitcoin’s (BTC) circulating supply is now held at a loss as the asset continues to face downward pressure in November.

However, the market stress may not be a bad sign, as it could signal a potential market bottom. Furthermore, experts remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects, forecasting a potential recovery.

Is Bitcoin Nearing a Bottom? {#h-is-bitcoin-nearing-a-bottom}

Bitcoin has fallen 17% in the past month, briefly dropping below the $100,000 mark during the November crypto crash. Its decline has left a major portion of the market with unrealized losses.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that more than 28% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently held at a loss. This indicates growing stress for buyers who entered at higher prices.

“While this might sound alarming, history shows that such levels have often marked local bottoms rather than breakdowns during bullish cycles,” analyst MorenoDV stated. Bitcoin Supply Held At a Loss. Source: CryptoQuant

The analyst added that a high share of supply held at a loss often aligns withliquidity stress points, moments when sellers exhaust themselves. Extended declines heighten emotional strain, pushing long-term holders to take profits and newer investors to sell at break-even points.

He suggested that the current environment reflects a balance between fear and patience. This psychological standoff can either lead to further selling or to renewed conviction among long-term investors.

“If sentiment fails to recover and holders continue to de-risk, the structure of demand may erode, signaling the end of the ‘good old days.’ But if fear reaches an extreme and selling pressure exhausts itself, these same levels could form a durable bottom, setting the stage for the next accumulation phase. At this point, the question isn’t only where the price is, it’s who still believes enough to hold through the pain,” the post concluded.

The latest on-chain data supports the argument for possible seller exhaustion. Analyst JA Maartun highlighted that Bitcoin’s Net Taker Volume recently fell to -53 million on an hourly basis.

Although this negative reading indicates strong selling activity, it may also suggest that sellers are becoming exhausted as selling pressure reaches extreme levels.

“Historically, these spikes often mark local bottoms,” the analyst stated. Bitcoin Net Taker Volume. Source: X/JA_Maartun

Experts are also pointing to more potential bottom signs for Bitcoin. Ray Youssef, CEO and co-founder of NoOnes, told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin is showing signs of a classic exhaustion phase.

Positive developments no longer lift the price, while negative news triggers immediate sell-offs. This behavior suggests weakening buying momentum and declining retail appetite for buying the dip.

“Nevertheless, the market is already gradually approaching a potential capitulation point, which historically has often been a harbinger of new growth. Mass liquidations of long positions often signal capitulation and a possible local bottom,” he said.

How High Can Bitcoin’s Price Go This Cycle? {#h-how-high-can-bitcoin-s-price-go-this-cycle}

Furthermore, Youssef explained that following such events, markets typically experience a short-term rebound, particularly when liquidation volumes reach extreme levels, as they do now.

He added that if Bitcoin manages to hold the $100,000 zone and trading volumes start to recover, the next immediate targets would be in the $107,000–$109,000 range. A breakout above this level could open the path for a move back above $110,000.

“However, if selling pressure continues, the market could indeed test the $92,000 area — and this is where a long-term reversal point could form,” the executive cautioned.

While the possibility for short-term volatility remains, most experts still maintain a bullish long-term view. Nic Puckrin, co-founder and crypto analyst at The Coin Bureau, observed that Bitcoin’s dip below the $100,000 mark has amplified the sense of unease in the market.

“However, it’s worth remembering that despite the recent sell-off, BTC is currently only around 20% below its all-time high. This is crypto, not the bond market, so a 20% drop is often just a buying opportunity,” Puckrin mentioned to BeInCrypto.

He stated that, in the short term, the key support level to monitor is the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), which is currently around $101,000. He added that Bitcoin still has enough strength to stay above the psychological $100,000 mark, though the real test will be where the price closes at the end of the week.

“Longer term, though, I still see $150,000 as a likely top for this cycle. It will just be a bumpy ride from here, and this volatility will increasingly catch out traders on both sides of the fence,” he remarked.

Finally, Shawn Young, Chief Analyst at MEXC Research, anticipates a rise in Bitcoin in November. He claimed that if the coin can break the $111,000–$113,000 resistance zone, it could set the stage for testing $117,000, with positive macroeconomic news potentiallyleading to a retest of the all-time high of $126,000.

“By the end of this year, we maintain a forecast for Bitcoin to reach the $125,000–$130,000 range,” Young mentioned to BeInCrypto.

While technical and on-chain indicators suggest that a bottom may be forming, macroeconomic challenges, particularly the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, continue to pressure risk assets. The next few weeks will be crucial to see if Bitcoin can emerge from its slump or faces further losses as holders capitulate.