On August 1, over 76 million SUI tokens were unlocked, flooding the market with a new supply valued at approximately $210 million. This event directly triggered a 20% fall in the SUI price from the July peak of $4.50, reaching a low of $3.46, catching many holders off guard.
However, well-known analyst Michael van de Poppe stated on social media: "This is not a crash, but a layout."
Token unlock impact, short-term pain difficult to conceal the value foundation
August has always been the "unlocking peak month" for the crypto market, and this year is particularly intense. The $210 million unlocking of SUI is the largest release in August, accounting for 8.4% of the total unlocking value of $2.5 billion for the month. With such a large volume of tokens being unlocked, some selling off for cash by early contributors and stakers is almost inevitable.
Historical data shows that SUI also experienced large-scale token unlocks in January and February 2025 (reaching 335 million and 300 million respectively), with significant price corrections occurring in the short term. The pattern of unlocking followed by a fall seems to be a market curse that SUI cannot shake off.
However, contrary to the market’s panic sentiment, institutional investors are quietly taking action. Mill City Ventures announced a private placement financing of $450 million, specifically for the construction of the SUI Treasury investment strategy. Such a significant capital injection at a price low point is certainly not a coincidence.
Technical indicators and ecological data hide the secret to a rebound.
From a technical indicator perspective, the current RSI of SUI is at 45.67, in the neutral range, but is approaching the oversold area, increasing the probability of a rebound.
Although the price has fallen below the 7-day SMA ($3.55) and the 20-day SMA ($3.80), it remains stable above the 50-day SMA ($3.31) and the 200-day SMA ($3.17). This indicates that the long-term upward trend has not been disrupted, and the current situation is more of a technical correction.
What truly supports market confidence is the explosive growth of the Sui network ecosystem. In July 2025, its DEX trading volume exceeded $14 billion, setting a new historical high. This figure represents a 657% increase compared to the same period last year, with user activity and capital inflow speed far exceeding the average level of public chains. Real demand is replacing market speculation, becoming a new pivot for the value of SUI.
The ETF wave is surging, signaling long-term positioning by institutions.
Traditional financial capital’s interest in SUI is accelerating. Canary Capital and 21Shares have officially submitted a spot SUI ETF listing application to the SEC.
Established cryptocurrency asset management companies such as Grayscale, VanEck, and Bitwise have also launched SUI-themed investment products. These actions indicate that institutional investors are incorporating SUI into the mainstream cryptocurrency asset allocation landscape.
If these ETFs are approved, they will open the traditional capital floodgate for SUI. Similar to the hundreds of billions of dollars in incremental funds brought about by the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, SUI, as an emerging Layer 1 leader, may experience a liquidity leap.
Key Price Levels and Future Trend Projection
According to Gate’s market data, as of August 7, SUI was trading around $3.46, with a market cap of approximately $8.6 billion, ranking 13th among cryptocurrencies.
From the support and resistance structure:
- Lower support: 3.27 USD (immediate support) and 2.29 USD (strong support)
- Upper resistance: 4.44 USD (key breakout level), after breaking through it is expected to challenge the yearly high of 5.517 USD
Analyst Van de Poppe pointed out that the current price range is the starting point of the "market reversal phase," and strong projects will recover first.
Combined with the fundamental indicators such as the TVL (Total Value Locked) of the Sui ecosystem reaching 2.19 billion dollars, the medium to long-term price expectation still points to a high of 14 dollars.
Future Outlook
With the injection of institutional capital from Grayscale and the implementation of the $450 million treasury strategy, Sui’s Layer 1 competitive journey has transcended pure price speculation.
Those investors who quietly accumulated around $3.46 clearly understood the narrative behind Sui Network’s $14 billion monthly trading volume: true ecological value never fades due to token unlocks.
