On August 13, the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $729.1 million in a single day, setting the second highest record in history. BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for $500.9 million, Fidelity’s FETH contributed $154.7 million, and the remaining 7 products did not experience any capital outflows.
More astonishing is the three-day cumulative data:
- From August 11 to 13, Ethereum ETF had a total inflow of 2.2 billion dollars (about 500,000 ETH)
- During the same period, Bitcoin ETF only had an inflow of 330.9 million dollars, with Ethereum leading by nearly 7 times.
This influx of funds drives ETH price on August 14, it surged to $4,790, just 4% shy of the historical high of $4,900 in November 2021.
Prices rose sharply and then fell back, with short-term volatility increasing.
Despite the continued inflow of funds, Ethereum experienced a technical correction after reaching its peak:
- On August 18, it fell 6% in a single day, hitting a low of $4,320 (a 10% drop from the monthly high of $4,795)
- The derivatives market saw over $210 million in Ethereum long positions liquidated within 24 hours, exacerbating volatility
- As of August 19, Gate data shows ETH is currently priced at $4,285, a slight decrease of 0.86% in 24 hours.
Analysts point out that the main reason for this pullback is short-term profit-taking, especially after 8 consecutive days of net inflows into the ETF, with some institutions choosing to lock in profits.
Supply crisis and institutional strategic layout become the core driving forces.
Increasing Scarcity
This month, the purchase of 500,000 ETH by the Ethereum ETF has surpassed the 450,000 ETH newly issued since the "Merge" in September 2022. This supply deficit has become an important support point for the price increase.
Major Players Deeply Involved
- Crypto mining company BitMine Immersion announced it raised $24.5 billion to increase its ETH holdings (previously planned for only $4.5 billion)
- Company’s financial report shows that traditional companies like MicroStrategy are accelerating the trend of including ETH in their asset allocation.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned: "If in three years someone tells us that the accumulation of reserves has led to the collapse of ETH… my guess is that they may have turned it into an overly leveraged game."
Bitcoin ETF pales in comparison, but demand resilience remains.
Bitcoin ETF performed moderately during the same period:
- On August 13, net inflow was $86.9 million, with ARKB (ARK Invest) and FBTC (Fidelity) leading
- Total assets under management reached $158.6 billion, accounting for 6.48% of Bitcoin’s market value (Ethereum ETF accounted for 5.22%)
Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow proposed the "Greater Fool Theory," suggesting that the rise of Ethereum is a strategy by long-term holders to create a narrative before dumping and reallocating into BTC.
Capital Flow Mutation, Market Enters New Stage
Latest data reveals a turning point:
- On August 19, Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $196.34 million in a single day
- BlackRock ETHA outflowed $86.87 million, Fidelity FETH outflowed $78.40 million
This ends the inflow trend of 8 consecutive days, indicating an increase in short-term adjustment pressure. However, the weekly net inflow still reaches 2.9 billion dollars, accounting for 80% of all cryptocurrency ETFs.
Analysts: Pullbacks may be long-term layout opportunities
Despite short-term fluctuations, institutions have not changed their long-term expectations for Ethereum:
- Standard Chartered Bank has raised its ETH price target for 2025 from $4,000 to $7,500, with a view of $25,000 in 2028.
- The key support level is between $4,100 and $4,200, coinciding with the 20-day moving average, where whales have accumulated 341,000 ETH.
- If the technical level breaks through the $4,500 resistance, it is expected to challenge the historical high again.
Ecological upgrades and macro policies will be future variables.
Technical Evolution
The Ethereum development team is advancing an upgrade that will increase Layer 1 throughput by 10 times, enhancing DeFi and institutional-level application scenarios.
Regulatory Favor
The US GENIUS Act passed in July, clearly supporting the compliance of stablecoins. Over 50% of stablecoin issuance occurs on Ethereum, contributing to 40% of on-chain fees.
Macroeconomic Sensitivity
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole conference, and the direction of interest rate policy may affect ETH’s short-term liquidity.
Bloomberg analysts referred to the recent Ethereum ETF trading frenzy as "ETHSANITY," with a trading volume reaching 17 billion dollars in four days. Such emotional labels often signal that assets are entering a new stage—establishing a value baseline amidst volatility.
