As of March 6, 2026, the US-Iran military conflict has entered its seventh day, with tensions escalating rather than easing. US Secretary of Defense Hegseth has made it clear that firepower strikes over Tehran are "about to increase dramatically," and the US will deploy more fighter squadrons and bombers. Meanwhile, political maneuvering is intensifying, with President Trump publicly stating that he "must personally participate" in Iran’s succession process and will not accept the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
This series of developments shows that the conflict has evolved from a purely military standoff to deep intervention in the stability of Iran’s regime. For the crypto industry, this geopolitical storm is reshaping market pricing logic through three main channels: energy prices, US dollar liquidity, and risk-off sentiment.
Background and Timeline
The escalation of this conflict is not an isolated incident but rather the culmination of a long-term power struggle. Below is a summary of key developments from the 24 hours leading up to March 6:
- Military escalation: Reports indicate the US military is preparing for operations that could last at least 100 days, potentially extending through September. The US House of Representatives voted down a resolution to limit Trump’s authority to use force against Iran (219 against, 212 in favor), removing domestic political barriers to prolonged military action.
- Deepening political intervention: Trump has explicitly rejected the succession of Khamenei’s son and encouraged the Kurds to launch offensives against Iran. This direct interference in Iran’s internal affairs has increased uncertainty. According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding his father has dropped from a peak of 82% to 52%.
- Mixed diplomatic signals: Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ravanchi stated that Iran is prepared to abandon its nuclear program, provided the US offers a "satisfactory alternative." However, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi also emphasized that the US military’s "quick victory Plan A has failed," warning that anyone who provokes war will "get bogged down."
Data and Structural Analysis
The impact of geopolitical conflict on the crypto market is reflected in complex structural changes, not just simple one-way moves.
"Bull-Bear Divergence" Revealed by the Options Market
Since early March, derivatives data shows a clear coexistence of short-term hedging and long-term bullish sentiment. For example, the implied volatility (IV) of BTC options expiring on March 27 surged to a relatively high 51.3% after the crisis broke out, indicating that the market is hedging against significant volatility in the coming weeks.
More crucially, the put/call ratio (PCR) provides key insight:
- Open Interest PCR (based on open positions): Stands at 0.75, below 1. This indicates that, from an overall perspective, call options remain dominant, especially at strike prices of $75,000, $80,000, and even $100,000, where a large number of contracts are still open.
- Volume PCR (based on trading volume): Reaches 1.37, significantly above 1. This reflects the market’s immediate reaction to the outbreak: a surge of capital buying out-of-the-money put options for tactical hedging.
In essence, the divergence between bullish open interest and bearish new flows clearly reveals institutional positioning: "Long-term bullish, short-term defensive." This structure suggests that if panic subsides at the margin, a sharp rebound could occur due to market makers’ gamma squeeze.
Community Perspectives
Currently, there are three mainstream but conflicting views in the market regarding the US-Iran conflict and its impact on crypto assets:
- View A: Bitcoin’s "digital gold" safe-haven narrative has failed
Proponents of this view point out that, at the onset of the conflict, Bitcoin did not surge like gold. Instead, it fell in tandem with US equity futures, triggering liquidations for nearly 150,000 traders. They argue that in the initial liquidity crunch, Bitcoin is still treated as a high-risk asset and sold off.
- View B: Bitcoin is the "ultimate safe-haven asset"
Others believe that after a brief sell-off, Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable resilience. Despite a major geopolitical crisis, BTC held key support levels and did not experience a 2020-style crash ("3/12" event). This suggests that institutional long-term holdings remain intact and Bitcoin’s value as a "non-sovereign currency" is being reassessed.
- View C: Geopolitical conflict transmits to crypto via "inflation expectations"
This is currently the most logically coherent view. The conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil supply. Rising oil prices drive up inflation expectations, which in turn affect the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory. Changes in US dollar interest rate expectations are the fundamental variable determining crypto market liquidity.
Industry Impact Analysis
Based on the above facts and data, the US-Iran conflict impacts the crypto industry on three main fronts:
Macro Liquidity and Risk Appetite
The conflict continues to push up energy prices, reinforcing sticky inflation. As a result, markets are scaling back bets on Fed rate cuts this year. For the crypto market, which is highly sensitive to global liquidity, this could delay the window for valuation recovery. On the other hand, if prolonged conflict undermines the US dollar’s credibility due to geopolitical risk, Bitcoin’s value as a "borderless hard asset" could see a systemic boost.
Crypto Market Microstructure
Derivatives data already reflect both the fragility and resilience of market structure. High implied volatility is shifting the risk-reward profile for grid trading and arbitrage strategies. For retail traders, this means heightened volatility risk; for professional institutions, it’s an opportunity to capture panic premiums through options strategies.
Energy Costs and Mining
Soaring oil prices will directly impact crypto miners reliant on fossil fuels, especially in parts of the Middle East and North America. If the conflict keeps energy costs elevated for an extended period, we could see a redistribution of Bitcoin’s global hash rate, accelerating the shift of mining operations to regions with cheaper renewable energy.
Scenario Evolution Projections
Given the current information, we can outline three possible scenarios and the corresponding crypto market responses:
- Scenario 1: Prolonged conflict but regionally contained (base case)
US military operations continue for weeks or months, mainly targeting military facilities, with intermittent disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Impact: Inflation expectations remain high, but global liquidity tightening slows. Bitcoin may form a bottom amid wide swings, with the options market’s "max pain point" (currently around $76,000) acting as the gravitational center for bull-bear battles.
- Scenario 2: Diplomatic mediation and de-escalation (optimistic case)
Iran agrees to abandon its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, and the US announces its objectives have been met, leading to a rapid cooling of tensions. Impact: Oil prices retreat, risk assets stage a sharp rebound. Previously suppressed call options unleash significant momentum, and BTC could quickly retest all-time highs.
- Scenario 3: Full-blown conflict (tail risk scenario)
Fighting spreads across the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for an extended period, and US ground forces become involved. Impact: The world is gripped by stagflation fears, triggering a round of indiscriminate liquidity crunch (dollar shortage), after which gold and Bitcoin, as ultimate safe-haven assets, attract massive capital inflows.
Conclusion
The escalation of the US-Iran conflict and Trump’s intervention in Iran’s succession have pushed geopolitical risk to new heights. For the crypto industry, short-term volatility is unavoidable, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will be vividly reflected in options data. Yet, beyond the fog of war, the underlying logic remains unchanged: In a world of shifting fiat credibility and geopolitical upheaval, Bitcoin’s narrative as a non-sovereign store of value is undergoing an extreme stress test. Whatever the outcome, it will redefine the pricing anchor of the crypto market in 2026.
