In July 2026, Bitcoin rebounded about 13% from its late-June low near $58,000, trading around $65,575.8 as of July 24. Over the past seven days, it gained 3.73%, and over 30 days, it rose 0.56%. Market sentiment has shifted from neutral-cautious to more of a wait-and-see stance.
However, macroeconomic signals remain highly contradictory. Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly climbed to 4.71%, its highest since January 2025. With renewed inflation concerns, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 rate decision are unusually divided. According to CME FedWatch, there’s a 70.6% chance rates will remain unchanged in July, and a 29.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike. Polymarket data shows the probability of no rate change spiked as high as 74%.
A price recovery does not necessarily signal a trend reversal. Recent reports from on-chain analytics platforms Glassnode and CryptoQuant both highlight that the current rally is more of a "relief bounce"—unrealized losses remain higher than during the February crash, spot demand continues to shrink, and prices are below nearly all major on-chain cost basis models. This article will break down the underlying structure of the current $65,000 market by examining unrealized P&L data, the contrast between spot and futures demand, and on-chain cost models. We’ll also discuss how investors should interpret this phase of the Bitcoin cycle.
Unrealized P&L: Market Pressure Remains Higher Than During the February Crash
Unrealized profit and unrealized loss are core on-chain metrics that gauge the overall profitability of market participants. Unrealized profit represents the total premium of all Bitcoin at current prices versus their last on-chain movement price, while unrealized loss reflects the total discount—showing the market’s "paper gains" and "paper losses."
Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s unrealized profit has dropped sharply from its October 2025 peak of roughly $1.4 trillion. By the end of June, it had fallen to about $400 billion, the lowest point this cycle. As prices rebounded from $58,000 to above $65,000 in July, unrealized profit recovered somewhat to around $500 billion. However, this is still well below the spring 2026 high of about $580 billion. From an on-chain perspective, unrealized profit needs to break above this spring peak to confirm a warming trend.
More important is the scale and persistence of unrealized losses. For most of 2026, unrealized losses have hovered between $200 billion and $300 billion—whereas throughout 2025, this figure was nearly zero. Net unrealized P&L hit a lower bottom in June than during the February crash, even though price ranges were similar. This gap reveals a crucial fact: as prices fell, a large amount of Bitcoin changed hands on-chain, raising the market’s overall average cost basis. In other words, the current investor cohort has a higher cost basis than in February, so they’re facing greater paper losses at the same price levels.
Meanwhile, long-term holders are now the largest source of realized losses. According to Glassnode, the share of realized losses attributed to long-term holders has risen from 15% in early February to 43%. Adjusted realized losses for entities holding Bitcoin over 155 days recently hit about $280 million per day—the highest since December 2022. This means even long-term investors who bought near the 2025 highs are under significant pressure and are capitulating.
This data points to one conclusion: The market’s profitability has not recovered enough to support a trend reversal. The repair in unrealized profit is still in its early stages, while the depth and duration of unrealized losses have already surpassed those seen in the February crash. With this kind of holding structure, every price rebound is likely to face selling pressure from holders sitting on losses.
Weak Spot Demand, Futures Leverage as the Main Driver
It’s also important to examine what’s driving the price rally. On July 23, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju noted that Bitcoin spot demand is weakening, while the futures market remains active. This divergence suggests traders are structurally repositioning for Bitcoin’s next move. Open interest in futures has rebounded to about $32 billion—high open interest without matching spot buying can create a fragile price structure, where liquidations of leveraged positions can trigger sharp moves in either direction.
Broader on-chain data supports this view. CryptoQuant data shows that in July, futures demand turned net positive again, with cumulative 30-day growth in perpetual futures demand of about 30,000 to 50,000 BTC. However, this is far below the level seen during the April rally to $82,000, when perpetual demand jumped by nearly 250,000 BTC. Current futures demand is about one-fifth of the April peak.
Spot demand has been even weaker. This metric has remained negative throughout the year, with a net reduction of about 200,000 BTC per month. By early June, total market demand had plunged to nearly -550,000 BTC, the worst level since the start of 2026.
CryptoQuant captured a similar pattern in April: during the rally phase, spot demand turned negative while perpetual futures almost single-handedly supported the price trend. This pattern—where price rises on futures activity while spot participants sell into strength—is typical of distribution, not accumulation. Ki Young Ju’s long-held view is that a true bear market recovery requires both spot and futures demand to rebound. The current structure, with only futures demand recovering and spot demand still shrinking, does not meet the criteria for a confirmed recovery.
History also shows that leverage-driven rallies without spot demand tend to be fragile. Rallies fueled solely by leverage, without spot buying support, have repeatedly proven unsustainable. Spot demand reflects real capital’s willingness to buy, while futures leverage is more about speculative sentiment. When leveraged longs can’t find support from the spot market, a shift in sentiment or an external catalyst can trigger rapid deleveraging—and sharper declines than the preceding rally.
On-Chain Cost Models: Key Price Levels for Bitcoin’s Next Phase
Currently, the Bitcoin price is below three of the four major on-chain valuation models. These cost basis models are essential reference points for understanding market valuation.
$52,900: Realized Price. The realized price is calculated as realized market cap divided by current circulating supply, representing the average on-chain acquisition cost for all Bitcoin. At $52,900, this is the only on-chain valuation model still below the market price, serving as the last layer of support. The last time Bitcoin hovered this long between realized price and the true market mean was during the 2022 bear market. A decisive break below $52,900 could indicate a deeper bear market—some analyses predict Bitcoin could fall toward $44,000 in Q4.
$69,500: Short-Term Holder Cost Basis. This metric reflects the average purchase price for investors who have held their coins for less than about 155 days. Since late 2025, every attempt by Bitcoin to reclaim this level—including the March rally—has failed. Regaining $69,500 would mean most recent buyers are back in profit—a shift that historically marks the start of recovery phases. From the current price of $65,575, this target is about 6% higher.
$76,200: True Market Mean. This figure represents the average acquisition cost for active Bitcoin holders, excluding long-dormant and lost coins, and thus better reflects the cost structure of active traders. Bitcoin has traded below both the true market mean and the short-term holder cost basis for about five months—making this one of the longest "deep value" periods in its history.
$83,500: Active Realized Price. This is the highest of the four models, about 27% above the current price. Reclaiming this level would mean the market has fully exited the deep value zone and entered a broadly profitable state.
Taken together, these four price levels form a staircase from "bear market bottom" to "recovery confirmation." The market is currently trading between support at $52,900 and resistance at $69,500. Reclaiming $69,500 is the first step toward confirming a recovery, while breaking above the $76,200 true market mean would signal a full exit from the deep value zone.
The Double-Edged Sword of the Macro Environment
Macro factors are also playing a critical role for Bitcoin. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly reached 4.71%, the highest since January 2025. The US Dollar Index has climbed back above 101. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar typically prompt investors to reduce exposure to crypto and equities—both considered risk assets.
The Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 rate decision is the most important macro catalyst in the near term. There’s significant market disagreement about the outcome—CME FedWatch shows a 70.6% chance of no change and a 29.4% chance of a hike in July; federal funds futures suggest the probability of a hike is close to 38%; Polymarket data shows the probability of no change reached as high as 74%. For the September meeting, rate hike expectations are even stronger—CME FedWatch puts the odds at about 88.2%, up from less than 53% a week ago.
Oil prices breaking above $100 per barrel are a key driver of inflation fears and rate hike expectations. Brent crude’s surge past $100 has intensified concerns about persistent inflation, pushing up Treasury yields and raising borrowing costs for consumers. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added further uncertainty to the macro environment.
All these factors are external variables for Bitcoin’s short-term price action—they could fuel a breakout if the Fed signals dovishness, or accelerate declines if there’s a hawkish surprise. The Fed’s final decision will have a significant impact on Bitcoin’s near-term direction.
Conclusion: A Rebound Is Not a Bull Market Confirmation
Bitcoin’s rebound from $58,000 to above $65,000 has technically reclaimed short-term moving averages and improved market sentiment. Yet, the on-chain data paints a more complex picture.
While unrealized profits have recovered somewhat, they remain well below spring highs; the depth and duration of unrealized losses exceed those seen during the February crash; spot demand is persistently negative, and this rally has been driven mainly by futures leverage; prices are below three of the four major on-chain valuation models, with only the $52,900 realized price providing support. This data collectively points to a cautious assessment: the current market is better characterized as a "relief rally within a bear market," not a confirmed trend reversal.
For market participants, the key to understanding this cycle is distinguishing between a "price rebound" and a "trend reversal." The former is a short-term price recovery, while the latter requires confirmation from on-chain capital flows, holder behavior, spot demand, and more. The $69,500 short-term holder cost basis is the first key level to watch for signs of recovery; the $76,200 true market mean marks a full exit from the deep value zone.
With the Fed’s rate decision approaching and macro uncertainty running high, Bitcoin remains at a crossroads. On-chain data doesn’t provide definitive answers, but rather a framework for assessing risk and opportunity—and right now, that framework points to caution, not optimism.
FAQ
Q: Does Bitcoin’s rebound to $65,000 mean the bear market is over?
Not necessarily. On-chain data shows unrealized profits are still well below spring highs, spot demand remains negative, and the rally is mainly driven by futures leverage. The current market is more of a "relief rally" than a trend reversal—watch for a reclaim of the $69,500 short-term holder cost basis.
Q: What is the "realized price," and why is $52,900 important?
The realized price is the weighted average cost of all Bitcoin based on their last on-chain movement, representing the market’s total cost basis. At $52,900, it’s the only on-chain valuation model still below market price, serving as the final support. A decisive break below could signal a deeper bear market.
Q: Why does weak spot demand make rallies hard to sustain?
Spot demand reflects real capital’s willingness to buy, while futures leverage mainly signals speculative sentiment. Rallies driven by leverage without spot support are fragile—high open interest with weak spot buying means liquidations can trigger sharp moves in either direction.
Q: How divided are expectations for the Fed’s July rate decision?
CME FedWatch shows a 70.6% chance of no change and a 29.4% chance of a hike in July; federal funds futures suggest the probability of a hike is close to 38%; Polymarket data shows the probability of no change reached as high as 74%. September hike odds have risen to about 88.2%.
Q: How should investors interpret the current Bitcoin cycle?
The market is in a "deep value zone"—trading below both the true market mean and the short-term holder cost basis for about five months. Focus on on-chain capital flows rather than just price swings, and pay close attention to the $69,500 and $76,200 resistance levels.
